The News Rundown

Carney announces food affordability measures, including boost to GST rebate

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a suite of affordability measures on Monday that he says will help Canadian families struggling to cope with the rising cost of living.
The flagship measure in Monday's announcement is the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit, which Carney said will boost what families and individuals receive through their GST rebate over the next five years.
The prime minister said that his government is using the GST rebate designed for Canadians with low and modest incomes, because groceries and other essentials make up a larger share of their family budgets.
In its first year, the benefit will give low- and modest-income Canadians eligible for the GST rebate a one-time boost that raises the $1,100 a family of four receives annually to $1,890 and increases the $540 an individual gets to $950.
Starting next year, and running for the next four years, the GST rebate is being increased by 25 per cent, which means a family of four will get up to $1,400 annually, while an individual will get about $700 a year.
Carney said: "Canada’s new government is acting today to provide a boost to those Canadian families who most need one, while creating a bridge to longer-term food security and affordability. The rise in food prices means that a lot of those Canadians need more support right now."
To help bring down the cost of groceries, which have been rising faster than inflation, Carney said he will direct $500 million from the government's Strategic Response Fund to help food suppliers "expand capacity and increase productivity."
Carney announced a $150-million Food Security Fund that will help small- and medium-sized businesses to expand greenhouses and abattoirs, and strengthen food supply chains. The prime minister also announced his government will direct $20 million in funding to the Local Food Infrastructure Fund to ease the pressure on food banks.
Opposition House leader Andrew Scheer called the GST rebate a "recycled Trudeau-era policy" that will not permanently reduce the cost of groceries in Canada. Trudeau doubled the GST rebate for six months in 2022 to help with affordability. He also renewed his party's call to curtail spending and work to bring the budget back to balance.
"It will not permanently provide relief. It is a temporary measure, I believe it won't even cover one trip to the grocery store for an average working family."
Despite criticizing the announcement, Scheer said "Conservatives will always support measures that provide relief, even if it is temporary.If they bring forward a simple bill that just does exactly what they said today, Conservatives will never stand in the way of relief for Canadians. "
Beginning April 1, the GST low-income credit will be topped up by 50 per cent in the first year and 25 per cent for the following four years. For a single person, the maximum annual payment will be $950 in 2026-27 and, assuming no future inflation, $683 in each of the next four years. For a married couple with two children the maximum payment will be $1,890 in the first year and $1,357 the next four. Once the family’s income reaches about $46,300, the credit is taxed away by five cents for every new dollar of earnings — thus acting like a tax on those earnings.
Carney’s announcement does not come cheap. The program will cost $11.7 billion over five years — boosting low-income people’s demand and helping push up the price of, among other things, groceries and essentials. Low-income Canadians will clearly benefit, but someone will have to pick up the tab via higher taxes or lower federal program spending. Or will it just be added to the nation’s tab, i.e., the national debt, which means higher federal debt payments?

The GST tax credit was not meant to be a social program. Its role was to make the GST progressive by in effect rebating the GST paid by low-income Canadians. And of course, groceries are already tax-free: Canadians don’t pay GST/HST on them. How ironic to use food prices as a reason to boost the GST credit for a product on which GST isn’t paid!

Economist Jack Mintz says: "If we want to give Canadians a more affordable life, welfare programs that discourage work aren’t the answer. We should look for other ways to make life affordable. The U.S. just announced a new $1,000 payment to an account for each child born over the next three years, which can be matched by parents, employers and charitable contributions. The savings will grow until the child is 18 or older when it can be used for any purpose. It’s a program to encourage saving and investment, not discourage work."
That's exactly it. Rebates and government spending are not going to get us out of this problem, and the GST rebate is going to be a drop in the bucket for most Canadians.
Supplementals:

One of the biggest news stories of the week was the idea that those part of the Alberta independence movement could be engaged in treason.
In a press conference following a first ministers meeting BC Premier David Eby said the T-word, the word that has sent many to jail and even the gallows before, treason.
Could Alberta separatists, specifically the people from the Alberta Prosperity Project (or APP) be engaged in treason?
Leaders of the APP have had some meetings with US officials in Washington DC. They specifically were looking to see if the US would offer a line of credit to Alberta if the province left the country.
Because of this Eby called it “old-fashioned treason”
Eby’s words, strong and emotional, asking a foreign power to “break up Canada” made their way through the media. But the reality? Those kinds of words are designed to make headlines and rally the base. The base of Canadians that are sovereigntists.
Premier Danielle Smith refused to take part in the demonization despite other Premier’s landing on Eby’s side. She cited 10 years of the Trudeau administration causing Albertans to lose hope and that she would not “demonize a million of my fellow citizens when they’ve got legitimate grievances.”
The media has done a phenomenal job of keeping Canadians scared over the last year. Most everyone who watches traditional media is programmed by the filters and narratives and ultimately whatever sells their ads.
The biggest thing in that space right now? Trump. Specifically the US and its president being an existential threat to Canada.
As a result every story whether it be about the border itself or airplanes or Alberta independence is being viewed in that lens.
The US state department confirmed the meetings happened but said that the department “regularly meets with civil society types” and no commitments were made.
The connection, specifically to the US and the state department upgrades this story in the eyes of the media and anyone wary of the Trump administration to be the beginnings of another foreign invasion plot backed by treason with images conjured of the end of Canada.
The reality is that nobody is being annexed. Trump can't snap his fingers and make Alberta the 51st state, even if some advisor says nice things about Alberta's resources and independence vibe. Borders don't move because of coffee chats in D.C. Sovereignty isn't that fragile.
It would be very hard politically to make any jurisdiction let alone Alberta a US state because of the inherent changes it would bring to electoral dynamics among other factors.
Citing the word treason is low hanging fruit. It’s an emotional label that relies on the utmost amount of mind reading to shut down the discussion with a scary word.
Treason of course is a crime with a very specific legal meaning. And in many countries is case for death.
At its core, right now citizens are petitioning for a referendum to be held and meeting with foreign governments about hypotheticals.
Polls right now show around 20-30% support in Alberta for independence and Quebec has slightly worse prospects. The movement in Alberta lacks a charismatic leader and it faces an uphill battle to reach a strong majority position.
Given that state and how the movement was handled in Quebec to say treason isn’t helpful and is escalating for the sake of escalating.
The unfortunate reality of Eby’s comments is that it hardens positions and will make the independence crowd dig in deeper.
What will help everyone and truly capitalize on sovereignty isn’t screaming treason but realizing what we can do as Canadians. It’s agency. Agency over our own domain.
Control what we can control. Focus on affordability, energy policies good for the entire country, strong interprovincial trade, and focusing on ensuring CUSMA talks go smoothly and with a favourable outcome for the whole country.
A good deal that’s not based on fear. Discussion that’s not dominated by Donald Trump because while he will drive a hard deal there’s ample opportunities to focus on within our own country without delving to annexation fantasies.
The media and everyone worried about the US should ask: does fixating on ‘treason’ help us live better? Or is it another distraction and diversion?
The Parti Quebecois in their actual referendums sought advice from the government of France. They also sought out international recognition by then French President Jacques Chirac which he confirmed that France would have recognized an independent Quebec.
That’s a number of steps away from where Alberta is but it’s the same general vibe and tone of what could happen if Alberta independence progresses further.
While we’ve dealt with the media angle on this, what about the law?
Federal officials say that Alberta separatists going around Ottawa and repeatedly meeting with U.S. officials to advance their cause is legal for Canadians, within certain limits.
The US has something called the Logan Act which criminalizes private diplomacy.
While private citizens can have these discussions in Canada they need to ensure they do not break any laws that prohibit espionage, sedition, and the sharing of state secrets.
The APP has said that they are aware that they are dealing in hypotheticals and that their foreign contacts are aware that the APP does not have the authority to make agreements on behalf of Alberta or Canada.
According to Yuan Yi Zhu, a Canadian professor of international relations and law at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands said, “they’d pretty much have to be caught on tape helping Donald Trump plan an invasion of Canada.”
Adrienne Davidson, a political science professor at McMaster University, said that the conversation could change if a referendum was underway and if the group was courting interference into the electoral process or a referendum.
There we have it, what was presented this week was a classic escalation by a politician that the media ran with. Are we for the better? No. Instead should we focus on things that can defuse the independence push internally? Absolutely.
Supplementals:

Eby may go down as worst fiscal manager in B.C. history

A BC news headline grabbed my attention this week, and for good reason. The title of the article opined "Eby may go down as worst fiscal manager in B.C. history", and we have to ask, is that accurate, or just media hyperbole?
Economists Jock Finlayson and Ken Peacock who wrote the article, certainly think so. They write: "The stunning deterioration in B.C.’s fiscal health during Premier David Eby’s tenure will not soon be reversed. Indeed, according to the Ministry of Finance, the aggregate provincial debt is set to more than double on Eby’s watch, soaring from $89 billion in 2022-23 to an estimated $213 billion by 2027-28. Many British Columbians may wonder about the benefits produced by this fast-climbing mountain of government debt."
Those are tragic numbers, especially when you consider we had balanced budgets pre-Covid. And at this point, it seems unlikely that Eby's government is going to reverse them. Halfway through the 2025-26 fiscal year, the operating deficit is on track to reach $11.2 billion—$300 million more than assumed in last year’s budget.
Eby inherited a balanced budget and a moderate accumulated debt from his more prudent predecessor, John Horgan. Within a couple of years, his government’s reckless spending had pushed the operating deficit to record highs—now the biggest in the country relative to the size of the economy. At the same time, provincial capital spending was also ramped up, adding to the government’s borrowing binge. Once the envy of other provinces, B.C.’s credit rating has been downgraded multiple times since 2021, boosting annual debt-servicing costs and leaving policymakers with diminished scope to deal with future economic shocks.
Even worse, GDP growth has also stagnated. In 2024, B.C. posted real economic growth of just 1.1 per cent, the lowest in the country. Last year was only a little better. It's expected to remain around 1.1-1.5% for 2026 as well.
Unfortunately, B.C. has become known as a jurisdiction with high taxes on both capital and the most productive segments of the work force; a punitive approach to regulation; and mounting uncertainty about future policy directions, property rights, Indigenous claims, runaway government spending, and much else besides. This unappetizing mix is making many businesses reluctant to invest or to expand their footprint here. Not all of this can be laid at the current government’s doorstep, but some of it definitely can.
In the meantime, a key driver of B.C.’s economic growth since 2020 has completely disappeared: robust population gains. Amid sweeping changes in federal immigration policy, B.C’s population is now falling. Young people are leaving the province in record numbers, residential construction is in recession, forestry and manufacturing are shrinking and capital investment is weak across most sectors. Alberta is looking at overtaking BC in population, when just 5 years ago, BC was almost 750,000 people ahead.
Finance Minister Brenda Bailey admitted to the bad news in an address to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade this week, predicting she’ll become the most unpopular person in the province.
A particular problem? Health care. Despite it giving off the appearance of being starved for cash, with its many staffing shortages, closures and delays, it already eats up more than 41 per cent of spending.
An indefinite timeline was also Bailey’s response to a question by Board of Trade president Bridgitte Anderson on when she is planning to balance the budget. There is no path in the current three-year plan, and neither Bailey nor Premier David Eby have ever committed to one.
“It’s going to take a number of years to do this work,” Bailey said Thursday. “But we’re getting started.”
It’s a pretty slow start, when you consider the Eby administration inherited an almost $6-billion surplus from John Horgan, and in the span of three years turned it into a record $12-billion deficit, as Anderson noted in one of her questions.
“That's a very good summary of why it's so important to bring the deficit down,” replied Bailey. “When you have this level of deficit, it takes away your ability to respond in a crisis. It takes away your ability to be present when you need to be.” Those words are true, but not backed up by actions.
Bailey, referencing $5.2 billion in annual interest payments said: “Another thing I try to frame up for people is when we look at the level of interest that we're carrying in the province right now, it's the fourth largest ministry. We cannot allow that to continue. We cannot. We can do better things with our dollars. We must do better things with our dollars. And it's my job in this government to make sure that we do.”
That includes re-examining the capital plan (which is used to build hospitals, schools, roads and bridges) as well as the public sector (which has grown more than 55 per cent since the NDP took power).
Yet, New Democrats have already shown they don’t quite have the stomach for the kind of massive spending cuts that would be required to dig out of the red. For example, a recent six month review of health authorities only yielded $60 million in efficiencies—the equivalent to 13 hours of spending in the health-care system.
Next month's budget is going to be awful, this we already know. It's no secret that the NDP under David Eby have completely mismanaged the province's finances. Now they tell us they'll fix it, when their record shows the opposite. In this case, calling Eby the province's worst fiscal manager in history is actually fairly accurate.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

Poilievre tells party delegates to have hope in speech that confronts Alberta, Quebec separatism

Pierre Poilievre passed his leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary with 87.4% support.
87.4%
I think Harper got something like 84% in 2005?
As the leader Poilievre gave a speech, a long one at that. Here’s some of the highlights.
The slogans that people criticized Poilievre for last year are gone.
One of the things that made it difficult for many to support him was the media perception that the Conservative leader was just Trump-lite.
The reality is that Trump dominates everything in the media, they run with coverage screaming “Canada’s doomed”, and they say Poileivre backs that up. They pushed hard on that and hoped Poilievre would not be successful.
87.4% though. That narrative crumbles and we even saw it in the media leading up to the convention with media members suspecting that Poilievre would pass with around 80% support.
Many were expecting bluster in the speech but along with absence of slogans Poilievre doubled down on the problems that presently face Canada.
Groceries, housing, jobs, and of course making sure that Canada stays strong and independent.
He talked about groceries costing almost $18,000 a year for some families, the highest in the G7. These are real pressures that are often glossed over in the media as a result of the American-heavy coverage.
He made it absolutely clear that Canada will stand strong and united.
He said, “In this dangerous and uncertain world, Canadians must stand united so we can stand on our own two feet. United and strong Canadians will bow before no nation anywhere on earth. Canada must make new friends, honour our alliances, and do our part on resources, trade, diplomacy, foreign aid, and everything else, though it’s clear we must prioritize our own national interest above all else.”
This is the key point because many have accused Poilievre of being too soft on the Americans. On sovereignty and tariffs he said, “We must diversify our markets and strengthen our alliances with our NATO partners. We must fight the American tariffs and do all we can to reach a no-tariff agreement with the United States. And yes, the Conservatives are ready to work with Mr. Carney and his government to open up new markets and eliminate the American tariffs.”
If we take a moment and pause and remember that when we listen or read one of these speeches there is more to the day-to-day discourse than Trump focused hysteria.
Affordability, building homes faster, stronger trade positions for Canada, keeping our sovereignty solid in negotiations ahead are all broad strokes of this speech.
The Associated Press or AP ran with the headline “Canada's Conservatives keep Poilievre as leader despite election loss”
They mention the 87.4% and then pivot their commentary to Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, who’s said Poilievre did not “address the US presidential elephant in the room” and felt there’s an uphill battle saying, “Many members of the base like him but, as far as the broader Canadian electorate is concerned, he’s much less popular than Mark Carney, who recently shined on the world stage at Davos and has recentred the Liberal Party of Canada ideologically in ways that even some moderate conservative voters like”
CBC echoed this slightly differently questioning where the plan to deal with Donald Trump was.
A speech to the base.
Should there be a Donald Trump discussion at some point, yes.
Was this the venue? No
One last thing that was addressed that did not get much coverage from the media was the state of Canadian unity, specifically around Alberta and Quebec.
Poilievre said, “we need to unite this country like never before, because a house divided cannot stand… Liberals are in power, and just as night follows day, separatist movements are in resurgence back in Quebec and here in Alberta. These movements which had been dormant or even dead when Prime Minister Harper left office. Now, we can simply attack people who feel this way. Or we can ask them why. Why, in Alberta and Quebec — why particularly among young people in those provinces — have so many lost hope in Confederation?”
He highlighted the Trudeau administration’s treatment of the history of Canada citing shame and horror, that we are a post-national country with no core identity, and that our youth will never own homes.
He also mentioned how the federal government “stomps” on Alberta’s energy sector and Quebec’s jurisdictions.
His message to those in Alberta and Quebec: “you will again have a country that respects your autonomy, is proud of your industries, unites us around our common identity and history, a country that will afford you the hopeful future that you have earned.”
What was presented was a hopeful vision of what the country could be while focusing on core issues that have fallen by the wayside with the country’s almost singular focus on the United States.
Going forward a policy proposal as outlined combined with a forceful repudiation of the Trump administration for those out east and frequently tuned in to Canadian media has the potential to shift the conversation in any potential upcoming election.
Supplementals:

Quote of the Week

“We must diversify our markets and strengthen our alliances with our NATO partners. We must fight the American tariffs and do all we can to reach a no-tariff agreement with the United States. And yes, the Conservatives are ready to work with Mr. Carney and his government to open up new markets and eliminate the American tariffs.” - Pierre Poilievre on the need to diversify away from and not rely on the United States.

Word of the Week

Treason - the crime of betraying one's country, especially by attempting to kill the sovereign or overthrow the government.

How to Find Us

Westerncontext.ca

westerncontext.ca/subscribe

westerncontext.ca/support

x.com/westerncontext

facebook.com/westerncontext

Show Data

Episode Title: A Passing Grade
Teaser: Carney announces a further GST rebate, Eby calls Alberta separatists treasonous, while Eby is called the worst fiscal manager in BC history. Also, Poilievre passes his leadership review with 87.4% approval.
Production Code: WC-454-2026-01-31
Recorded Date: January 31, 2026
Release Date: February 1, 2026
Duration: 1:07:07
Edit Notes: Pause into FL

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX