The News Rundown

Liberal House leader ‘starting to worry’ about support for upcoming budget

The federal Liberals have been pretty bullish with their governing since Mark Carney was elected to 3 seats less than a majority this past April. Just over 6 months later, the government is looking to pass its first budget, and has stayed bullish, not deigning to make any concessions to any other party in order to ensure its passage, instead, forcing the other parties to make the choice: either one of the CPC BQ or NDP vote to pass the budget, or face another election.
It started last week when Liberal House leader Steve MacKinnon signalled that he’s concerned the government’s budget might not get support from the opposition benches, while at the same time dismissing some demands other parties have laid out. Because the budget is a confidence vote, Canadians could be facing another election if it doesn’t pass.
On Monday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre penned a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney saying he wants to see an “affordable budget” that includes broad tax cuts and keeping the deficit under $42 billion.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois has said they have six key priorities for the budget including: an increase to the federal health transfer to the provinces, new infrastructure investments, an expansion of the rapid housing initiative, interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers and boosting Old Age Security (OAS) payments for those ages 65 to 75.
Despite raising concerns about getting support for the budget, MacKinnon dismissed both the Conservative and Bloc demands.
"We intend to present a plan to Canadians to deal with this very critical moment in our history, and what we're seeing is opposition parties — the Bloc Québécois, who without having even read the budget, eliminating the possibility that they'll support it — and Conservatives making just ludicrous demands,” he said Tuesday.
NDP interim Leader Don Davies fired back at MacKinnon’s comments, saying it's up to the government to gather support for its budget.
"The question of whether there is an election is entirely up to Mr. Carney. As a leader of a government with a minority in Parliament, it's up to him to craft a budget that can win the support of at least one opposition party. That's his job," Davies said during a press conference in Ottawa on Tuesday.
"For Mr. MacKinnon to say he's worried, well that has me worried. Because the government should be reaching out to all the parties and working collaboratively to make sure that they can get enough votes to have the budget passed."
While the NDP caucus was reduced to only seven seats after April’s election, they still have enough sway to determine the outcome of a vote. The Liberals could pass the budget if New Democrats support it or abstain from the vote.
Davies met with Carney earlier this month to lay out his party’s priorities for the budget. He told reporters after the meeting that he wants to see “substantial investment” in jobs, health care and housing — though he didn’t list specific items.
For New Democrats, getting behind the Liberals may be even more of a stretch. Carney is planning increased defence spending but has also asked the rest of the government to find program reductions in the public service of 7.5 per cent in the next fiscal year, 2026-27, rising to 15 per cent in 2028-29.
Carney has indicated that this year’s deficit will be larger than the last — though the Liberals have promised to balance the operational spending on the day-to-day running of government in three years.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) released a report last month forecasting that the government will post an annual deficit of $68.5 billion this year, up from $51.7 billion last year.
But that update does not include plans to incrementally ramp up defence spending to meet the updated NATO benchmark of five per cent of GDP by 2035, nor does it factor in Ottawa's announced plans to reduce public service spending over the next three years.
Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer said Wednesday that his party thinks the government is trying to force another election by preparing a budget that the Opposition won't support to "hide from the fact that they have not been able to deliver on their promises," an apparent reference to the stalled tariff talks with the Americans.
Scheer said: "It's becoming clear the government is going to use their costly budget as an excuse for costly elections. But there is an alternative. They could bring in what Conservatives are calling for and that is an affordable budget for an affordable life for Canadians."
Poilievre wants Ottawa to dump the industrial carbon tax, which he has started calling "a hidden tax on food," make income and capital gains tax cuts and still keep the deficit at $42 billion or less. However, the industrial carbon tax is central to the government's climate policy, especially after it scrapped the consumer carbon tax. Prime Minister Mark Carney already cut income taxes, and the deficit is likely to be much higher than $42 billion given what the Liberals have committed to spend to build up the armed forces and spur housing development.
Earlier today as of recording, Carney said that he was prepared for an election if the budget doesn't pass, saying he's 'always prepared to stand up for the right thing'.
Carney said before boarding the plane to return home from the APEC summit in South Korea: “I am 100 per cent confident that this budget is the right budget for this country — at this moment. This is not a game. This is a critical moment in the global economy — or an important moment in the global economy. It's a critical one for our country."
There is a running list on Business in Vancouver's website that has all of the promises the Liberals have made for the budget so far that we have linked in the supplementals to our story this week.
These promises include boosts to various public service sectors, despite Carney's ask to cut funding from several programs.
We don't know whether or not the budget will pass, but one thing is for sure, whatever happens will be on Carney and his government. Whether or not we see a government that gets to work or plays political games to force an unpleasant budget will be decided very soon.
Supplementals:

This week the province tabled and passed legislation sending teachers back to work and students back to school using the notwithstanding clause.
The notwithstanding clause shields the legislation from judicial turnover.
Aside from going back to work the legislation imposes an agreement that was jointly put forward by the union and province but rejected by teachers.
The deal would give teachers at least a 12% raise over 4 years with the commitment of hiring 3,000 new teachers and 1,500 educational assistants.
Unions that defy the back to work order would be fined $500,000 a day and individual teachers $500 a day. This is an the ultimate and effective approach for the province to address unions that lead to significant labour disruptions.
The notwithstanding clause ensures students stay in school. We’ll get to the legal discussions on that in a little while.
The province also included a policy plan in a province-wide letter to teachers that was seldomly shared in the media.
The province also says they will build and modernize 130 schools by 2030.
A task force on class size and complexity will also be created.
There will also be more student supports for those with disabilities, mental health challenges, and language barriers.
This also follows an effort to make classrooms safer and modernize education funding with the promise of a new model that is “responsive to the needs of every school and student.”
Critically alongside education reforms, also included is a push to depoliticize the classroom and keep politics and ideology out of the classroom, instead focusing on knowledge, critical thinking, and academic excellence.
Speaking on the Bill bringing students back, Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides said, “As I spoke to Bill 2 yesterday, I spoke about the severe negative consequences that students are going through right now because of the strike, academic disruption, social disruption, psychological disruption, so I’m comfortable that the kids will be going back so that they can have that routine, have that structure, continue with their academics and their social development.”
The province also highlighted the learning disruption that happened during the COVID pandemic.
The province ultimately felt that if the notwithstanding clause was not used the schools would be back to a strike position in weeks or months.
The notwithstanding clause comes back to Premier Peter Lougheed in the early 1980s and Saskatchewan NDP Premier Alan Blakeney.
In 1983 Peter Lougheed enacted the Public Service Employee Relations Act, which prevented hospital workers from going on strike.
The union challenged the law based on a Charter of Rights and Freedoms right to strike.
The Supreme Court later issued a 1987 ruling that allowed the Public Service Employee Relations Act to stand.
After leaving office Lougheed said that if the Supreme Court had invalidated the provisions under the right to strike the province would have used the notwithstanding clause.
Fast forwarding to 2015 in Saskatchewan Federation of Labour vs. Saskatchewan the Supreme Court granted “constitutional benediction” to the right to strike. Otherwise known as a their blessing on the option to strike.
It’s this decision in 2015 that now allows courts to strike down laws that restrict the right of public unions to strike. This is why the province used the notwithstanding clause.
This reasoning was printed in The Hub by Geoffrey Sigalet who is the director of the UBC Research Group for Constitutional Law and an assistant professor of political science at UBC.
Sigalet calls it a reasonable decision because the labour dispute is’t just about teacher pay but bigger policy matters such as more teachers, more schools, working conditions, and public policy matters that the court can’t address.
As an example, if the province hires more teachers, it will have less room in the budget for other important policies, e.g. doctors and nurses in health care. If the province builds more schools, it may have less funds to build hospitals or other important infrastructure.
Sigalet says that the courts should not be making a decision when these policy trade-offs are related to education funding.
The use of the notwithstanding clause is treated as something big, bold, and scary because there’s the expectation it not be used because the federal government has not used it.
The federal government has not because they control the vast appointment of judges and can influence judicial policies in that way.
Sigalet concludes by saying, “provincial costs in public sectors such as education and health care continue to grow, it would be bizarre if provinces did not avail themselves of the one constitutional tool that allows them to override the ability of public unions to use courts to extract rents and influence public policy.”
The unions have said that this legislation is the UCP “declaring war” on the labour movement.
Alberta Teachers’ Association president Jason Schilling said, “To have a government that is willing to trample on your Charter rights for their own purposes is a sad thing for this government to do.”
Other unions including the union governing LPNs and Health Care Aides have started a strike vote and there is the conversation of a province wide general strike.
Alberta Federation of Labour President Gil McGowan said what he hears is that workers want to “topple the government” and union organizers will bring forth recall campaigns against MLAs and ministers.
We of course have to question what the ultimate motive is. The NDP has to this point been largely ineffective as an opposition to the UCP. Nenshi and his members referred to the government as cowardly and that the UCP were scared of debate.
Though the Alberta arm of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation published an article showing various literature on the Alberta Teachers’ Association website advocating for a provincial sales tax.
The documents allege that the province could collect an additional $19b in revenue if it followed BCs taxation model.
The ultimate push for more union spending was not talked about in the media nor has a united front appearing against the UCP until the teachers started angling for a strike which creates an opposition more effective than the NDP.
The media has largely ignored this. They instead chose to take shots at Danielle Smith for going on a trip to the Middle East as the Bill to send teachers to work was being passed, not a vacation but a trip about Alberta energy that was finalized early this year.
CTV news also initially penned a story citing “experts” which was later changed to “critics” - the reason? Both people spoken to for the story were against the government and in the case of one he even posted a “no queens” meme with a headshot of Danielle Smith.
The story also did not include content from Geoffrey Sigalet who we talked about earlier. Now why should it you ask?
On X Sigalet wrote, “CTV News did call and interview me but apparently my views [didn’t] fit the narrative?”
This happens far more times than we know and if a nuanced balanced view were presented many more people would have different views about the topic of the day.
Supplementals:

B.C. premier prepared to call early election if bill for North Coast Transmission Line voted down

BC Premier David Eby has had an eventful week, taking a page from Prime Minister Mark Carney's book in threatening an early election if his government cannot pass the bill to support the North Coast Transmission Line.
Bill 31, introduced last week, would fast-track construction of a multi-billion dollar power transmission line that would double the amount of electricity that flows from Prince George to Terrace.
“This is non-negotiable for us. This bill must pass,” Eby said. “I would stake our government on it. The last thing I want is an election but we’ll be prepared if it’s necessary.”
The North Coast Transmission Line is designed to power critical mineral projects and LNG terminals in B.C.’s north.
Eby’s comments came the day after the B.C. Conservatives tried to delay the bill by presenting a hoist motion, which would have slowed the bill’s progress by at least six months. Their motion, however, did not pass.
In response to the hoist motion, Eby accused the B.C. Conservatives of pulling a “stunt” that would have put thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in revenue at risk.
Unlike Carney however, the NDP has a narrow, one-seat majority and in cases of confidence motions, Speaker Raj Chouhan — MLA for Burnaby-New Westminster — is able to break the tie.
The NDP government and the B.C. Greens have an agreement that the two Green MLAs will vote with the government on confidence motions. However, the party’s new leader, Emily Lowan, has said she wants to renegotiate that agreement.
The B.C. Greens have criticized the bill, saying while they support the section of the bill that allows for Indigenous co-owners of the transmission line, they are not in favour of what they say is “a public subsidy for resource extraction.”
B.C. Green MLA Jeremy Valeriote says the party does not support the bill in its current form, but he voted in favour of the bill at its second reading in order to negotiate changes at the committee stage.
Valeriote said: “If the premier wants to call an election I think it will be for reasons other than Bill 31. He’s welcome to use that as an excuse if he wants.”
B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad says the government does not need the legislation to build the North Coast Transmission Line and questioned whether B.C. has the electrical capacity to power it.
As for the possible early election call, Rustad said: “Let’s dance.” He says he’d be interested to see what the public thinks about Eby’s record on protecting private property rights, and the state of the health care system and the forestry industry.
Eby was also on the defensive this week for lifting the government hiring freeze long enough to put NDP insider Nathan Allen on a $140,000 a year communications contract on the Downtown Eastside, a community in Vancouver that regularly sees major problems with homeless, drug use and crime. Allen will be working alongside former Vancouver Mayor Larry Campbell, who was himself hired on a six-month $102,000 contract as the premier’s special adviser on the DTES.
Precisely what that work entails was not spelled out by Eby when he announced the Campbell appointment last month. The former mayor and senator seemed mainly concerned with lowering expectations about what he might achieve: “I’m not a czar. And I’m not a saviour for the Downtown Eastside. … I know that the Downtown Eastside has been over-consulted, over-reported on.”
Conservative MLA Claire Rattée also named a number of other outsiders hired by the government for various tasks in health care, social services, and Indigenous relations. Together she estimated the combined payout at $2 million on consulting contracts over a year and asked why the premier so often reached outside his own government for high-paid advice.
Eby also was under fire for asking for a stay of the implementation of the Cowichan Tribes case that confirmed Aboriginal title over an area of private and government-owned land in Richmond.
Eby said Wednesday that a stay would give the British Columbia Court of Appeal an opportunity to consider and decide on the landmark case that has sparked concerns about the implications for private land ownership.
Although the August declaration of Aboriginal title by the B.C. Supreme Court was suspended for 18 months, Eby said he hoped the Court of Appeal would use the requested stay to provide some "clarity and assistance" on the direction of the case.
The ruling says the Crown's grants of private titles in the 750-acre area was an unjustified infringement of Cowichan rights.
Eby was speaking the day after the City of Richmond hosted a tense public meeting for hundreds of residents and land owners on Tuesday night about the precedent-setting case and its potential impacts on private property.
A few days earlier, the City of Richmond sent out a letter to more than 125 property owners warning them that the security of their land is in doubt. “For those whose property is in the area outlined in black,” the letter reads, “the Court has declared aboriginal title to your property which may compromise the status and validity of your ownership … The entire area outlined in green has been claimed on appeal by the Cowichan First Nations.”
The Richmond letter is a consequence of a recent decision of the B.C. Supreme Court, which awarded Aboriginal title over 800 acres of land in Richmond to the Cowichan First Nation. Wherever Aboriginal title is found to exist, said the court, it is a “prior and senior right” to other property interests, whether the land is public or private.
It is finally dawning on British Columbians that devotion to reconciliation is putting their land at risk. Sharma claimed that B.C. was pursuing multiple grounds of appeal, but that makes her a hypocrite. Her government did not robustly defend in court against the Cowichan claim. And in a dozen other ways, the Eby government has sought to put title and control of B.C. into Aboriginal hands.
In early 2024, it proposed to amend the province’s Land Act, which governs the use of Crown land in B.C. It planned to give B.C.’s hundreds of First Nations a veto over mining, hydro projects, farming, forestry, docks and communication towers. The government tried to consult quietly, but the backlash was immediate. It withdrew the proposals, promising to be more transparent. But it did not shelve its objectives or its plans. And did not deliver on its promise. Instead, it sought to make agreements over specific territories with specific Aboriginal groups, often negotiated covertly and announced after the fact.
The BC NDP are also proposing legislative changes that would allow municipal governments to hold secret closed-door meetings when discussing confidential or “culturally sensitive” information shared by First Nations — a move the provincial government says will strengthen collaboration, but which would also limit public transparency.
The proposed amendments to the Community Charter and Vancouver Charter would add new grounds for municipal governments to meet in-camera, including discussions related to Indigenous heritage, “traditional knowledge,” or government-to-government negotiations between municipalities and First Nations. This legislation would also require meetings to be closed when those negotiations involve another municipal government.
So whether or not we see the North Coast Transmission Line pass or fail, we may be seeing a larger number of scandals being underreported by the media in lieu of Eby's election threats. The parallels with the federal Liberals could not be more clear.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

Canada's Carney to visit Xi in China, marking 'turning point' in relations

The relationship between Canada and China is on the mend, apparently.
Mark Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the side of the APEC summit on Friday. The two spoke for about 40 minutes and this marked the first meeting between leaders of the two countries since 2017.
Mark Carney was not hiding where he hopes the relationship between the two countries will go, after in a post on X he wrote, “We are committed to renewing the relationship in a pragmatic and constructive way. We each directed our officials to move quickly to resolve outstanding trade issues and irritants, and we look forward to making progress on these issues as we strengthen ties between our two countries.”
Carney also told reporters, "Distance is not the way to solve problems, not the way to serve our people.”
President Xi said, “China is willing to work with Canada to push China-Canada relations back onto a healthy, stable, and sustainable correct track.”
The correct track.
China’s government has the ability to be looking 50 to 100 years down the road, whatever they view as the correct track will undoubtedly benefit China.
The Trudeau administration went to China in 2017 and came home empty handed minus the small potatoes nickname for Trudeau.
The government had hoped to get a trade agreement with China but talks quickly fell apart when the Canadian side insisted on provisions for the environment, human rights, and gender equality. This progressive trade agenda failed.
Relations deteriorated further when Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada and later Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were taken prisoner by the Chinese.
This of course all ignored years of Chinese interference in Canada on files such as retirement homes, potash, casinos, Chinese police stations, and election interference.
The list goes on and we question now if we’re at a point where the media and government will simply forget.
The United Front Work Department which spreads Chinese Communist Party ideology abroad is still active in Canada.
As recently as this week The Bureau, which we have discussed in many of our Chinese stories, published a story where they say, “a Fujian business leader listed as a key principal for the Markham clubhouse under investigation was previously the subject of major narcotics, organized-crime, and triple-murder inquiries in Japan — long before arriving in Canada amid a history of falsified travel documents, gaining citizenship through a refugee claim, and later rising in political and business circles tied to Beijing’s United Front Work Department.”
Known by the alias Takayuki Harada at the time of the brutal 1995 murder of three female grocery-store workers in Tokyo, the migrant from China is currently listed in business documents as a director of the Canada Toronto Fuqing Business Association.
The Fuqing Business Association address appeared in a 2022 story we discussed where Safeguard Defenders’ 2022 report first discussed Chinese police stations.
Despite all this going on there is a push to normalize relations with China.
There is a split view in Canada on whether we should drop the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in an effort to try to have China drop tariffs on Canadian canola.
The government is presently looking to double non-US exports in the next 10 years and sees China and “the economic giants of Asia” as a place Canadian goods can go.
Vina Nadjibulla, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada vice-president of research and strategy, said that Canada has very little leverage with China and that we should have modest expectations.
This comes down to Canada hurting more than China in the EV vs. Canola tariff discussion.
The pressure will be on Canada to make some sort of deal.
First because the country faces what the BBC has called a two-front trade war with China and the US.
And secondly, most people in Canada at this point would rather run away from the US even if it means falling deeper into the economic sphere and influence of China.
Canada should increase its exports but the question is what of those exports does China want? The exports that Canada should be selling to everyone is energy as that’s one of the easiest to double and is something China needs.
Mark Carney has also been invited to visit China by President Xi at a mutually convenient time.
Chinese Ambassador Wang Di said that tariffs don’t represent the whole relationship.
With this it’s clear that China is interested in seeing where the relationship with Canada can go.
At this point it is imperative that we hit the pause button on this case. The media and government is moving swiftly to create a situation where Canadians can forget what they recently knew about China because right now to many Canadians the US is a bigger concern.
But what the media covers does not scratch the surface in terms of all the times China has crossed our radar in now 442 episodes of this podcast.
Supplementals:

Quote of the Week

"Distance is not the way to solve problems, not the way to serve our people.” - Prime Minister Mark Carney on rebooting the relationship with China

Word of the Week

negotiable - open to discussion or modification

How to Find Us

Westerncontext.ca

westerncontext.ca/subscribe

westerncontext.ca/support

twitter.com/westerncontext

facebook.com/westerncontext

Show Data

Episode Title: Election Threats
Teaser: Mark Carney threatens an election if his budget doesn’t pass, Alberta uses the notwithstanding clause to end the teacher’s strike, and David Eby continues to force his reconciliation policies through. Also, Carney thaws Canada’s relationship with China.
Production Code: WC-442-2025-11-01
Recorded Date: November 1, 2025
Release Date: November 2, 2025
Duration: 1:08:33
Edit Notes: None

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX