The News Rundown

Election 2025: Overview

Results
Poilievre as leader
Are the NDP dead?
Will Mark Carney be different?

The election in BC played out as it normally does: mainstream media outlets calling for a Liberal government before our voting polls even closed, leading to some calls for synchronized poll closures so that our vote in the West actually matters towards the results.
What the results actually showed in BC was a surprising mix of the Liberals picking up most urban ridings in Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna, the Conservatives breaking through on the NDP stronghold of Vancouver Island and almost sweeping the entirety of the BC Interior, and the NDP being reduced to just 3 seats from 13 in a province where the NDP currently have a majority government, with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh placing third in his riding of Burnaby Central. Oh and Elizabeth May also continues to retain her seat as the now only Green seat in Parliament.
Ultimately, with the national election turning into a 2 horse race, the NDP's collapse meant that the votes coalesced around both the Liberals with 20 seats and Conservatives with 19 out of the province's total of 43.
The Conservatives and Liberals won a surprisingly similar share of seats and votes across the province. But as it is, it shows a different phenomenon: B.C.’s intensifying urban-rural divide. The urban-rural divide isn’t new or unique to B.C., but several factors have caused political scientists to take note after the federal election.
This divide was also apparent in last October’s provincial election. With only a handful of NDP MLAs elected in rural ridings across the province, Premier David Eby said he was concerned about the divide and promised to “govern for the entire province.”
Jack Lucas, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, said research shows this divide is larger today than at any other point in Canada’s history: “Whether someone lives in an urban or rural place is a strong predictor of how they’ll vote,” with only regional divisions a stronger indicator, he said.
Lucas said he fears it is getting “harder and harder” for the Liberals to get rural representation in cabinet. The same might be true for a Conservative government trying to gain meaningful urban representation. When the government only cares about the concerns of people who vote for them, it can lead to bigger problems.
In the recent federal election, the collapse of the NDP — from 13 seats to three — reinforced the urban-rural divide in B.C. In the same way, the fall of B.C. United led to a two-party contest and stronger regional divisions in the last provincial election.
On Vancouver Island — where the NDP held six seats — Liberal candidates captured the ridings of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and Victoria, where the last Liberals elected were in 2008 and 2004, respectively. The Conservatives also took 3 Island seats, breaking into places they hadn't held since the Harper majority of 2011.
17 of the Liberal's 20 seats were in population dense Vancouver, with most of their gains there coming at the expense of the NDP. Around half of the entire population lives in Vancouver and its suburbs, so while a map of BC looks like it voted Conservative, as they say, land doesn't vote, and so Vancouver was where the Liberal's biggest gains were west of Toronto.
The NDP's stunning collapse played out in real time as BC's votes were coming in. As Jagmeet Singh's party held 13 of their 24 seats in BC, being reduced to just 3 out of their 7 seats was a big shock to NDP supporters.
British Columbia’s NDP Premier, David Eby, sees opportunity in the New Democrats’ federal electoral losses. He expressed regret that his federal political “cousins” lost so many ridings, but took hope in that B.C. voters sent more members of the governing Liberal party back to Ottawa than in the previous election. Eby hopes that will translate into greater influence for his long-running campaign to renegotiate the province‘s status in Confederation.
B.C.’s list, delivered Thursday in a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney, starts with infrastructure, which is framed as a companion piece to the Liberals’ election promise to improve the east-west transportation corridor for goods.
“As Canada’s gateway to Asia-Pacific, strengthening B.C.’s supply chain infrastructure – and Canada’s energy and food security – should be a national priority,“ Eby wrote in his formal letter of congratulations to Carney.
In order to ”streamline" rail and road trade corridors and the movement of goods through B.C.’s key ports to help move Canadian products to new, non-U.S. markets, Eby wants Ottawa to pay a greater share of upgrades such as the multibillion-dollar replacement of the aging Massey tunnel that presents a choke point on Highway 99. The province has long asked for a federal contribution on the Massey project but previously rejected Ottawa’s offer as too little.
Eby has complained in the past that his province has not had equivalent investments or considerations as Ottawa’s support for electric vehicle battery plants in Ontario or immigration supports in Quebec. Now, he is emphasizing his government’s shared goals to fast-track the development of critical minerals that Carney says will “kick-start the clean energy supply chain.”
B.C. has 17 critical minerals mines in the proposal phase, and Eby is inviting Ottawa to help pay for a new hydro power transmission line to unlock the development of mines in B.C.’s northwest, a costly line his government has already promised to build.
Carney, addressing Canadians following his party’s victory on Monday night, did indicate that some of B.C.’s lobbying has gotten through. He didn’t mention steel or auto parts, but he did mention the one commodity that matters more to the B.C. economy: forest products. Carney promised to tackle the national housing shortage using domestic lumber.
Ultimately, BC may play a bigger part in Carney's re-elected win in delivering for the province, as long as David Eby doesn't push too hard. We'll see if Carney pays attention to BC as he delivers his platform.
Supplementals:

Premier Danielle Smith calls on PM Mark Carney to 'reset' Ottawa-Alberta relationship

The election results may have some Albertans looking for the exit to confederation. The UCP has tabled legislation this week that will make advancing citizen referenda easier which we’ll get to in a little while.
First though, the results for our province.
The Conservatives won 34 of 37 seats with 63% of the popular vote.
Edmonton Strathcona stayed with the NDP and Heather McPherson and was one of the strongest NDP seats in the country.
Edmonton Centre went for the Liberals with Eleanor Olszewski winning.
She is a former civil litigation lawyer and Canadian Armed Forces Veteran. She holds a degree in Pharmacy from the University of Alberta.
In the Alberta surprise of the night Calgary Confederation went for the Liberals under candidate Corey Hogan defeating former UCP MLA and Cabinet Minister Jeremy Nixon.
Calgary Confederation holds the University of Calgary and Hogan is Vice President at the University. He also served as Alberta’s civil service deputy minister under Rachel Notley and later Jason Kenney.
Sohi
Aggregators had estimated as many as 7 liberal seats and 2 NDP seats - that did not happen.
Following the election the Alberta government introduced Bill l54, the Elections Statutes Amendment Act.
Presently to get a citizen referendum off the ground a petition needs the support of 20% of Alberta eligible voters based on 2019 election turnout, this is about 600,000 people.
This Bill among other things halves that.
Premier Smith has been derided in the media for saying she’s stoking the flames of separatism.
Premier Smith in her press conference with the media said, “I would encourage people to not look at this through an ideological lens. If you’ve got an issue that is important to you that can garner the support of your fellow citizens, start a petition.”
She said this citing grass roots democracy legislation in California and Switzerland. She also encouraged people to pass things close to their heart like rent control as an example.
The Bill also bans the use of electronic vote tabulators, eliminates vouching, requires official counts to be completed within 12 hours of poll closing, requiring voters to cast their ballot in their constituency or by requesting a special ballot, expanding the availability of special ballots and more.
Now as a note on Alberta independence. Many folks are feeling the need to push this direction after the election and considering the way things have gone, it makes sense.
But if such a thing is to ever happen it needs to be treated and built as a genuine movement.
Halving the amount of signatures needed is a good first step.
But a movement needs to be built if people want to go that direction. It needs the resources of a full campaign, a non-crackpot leader, and it needs to win more than 50%+1 support. Somewhere in the 60-75% range.
Until it can do that, independence minded Albertans would be smart to stop and build.
Because if the province goes to a referendum and it fails it will be another 30+ years like Quebec where the movement will go nowhere.
Premier Smith also had a phone call with Mark Carney and called it a “positive first meeting”.
The readout says, “We spoke at length about the policies and legislation that are holding back Alberta’s economy, and specific proposals for projects and legislative reforms that will significantly increase market access for Alberta oil and gas, agricultural products and other goods. The Prime Minister made it clear he intended to rapidly advance these kinds of nation building projects in the coming weeks and months.”
As discussed earlier, whether or not Mark Carney is different than Justin Trudeau will determine the path Alberta takes.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

Niagara Falls ‘at breaking point’ after surge in migrants

Quote of the Week

“As we come here after this consequential election, let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past. We are all Canadian, and my government will work for and with everyone. I began with humility, but Canadians are ambitious. And now more than ever, it is a time for ambition, to be bold, to meet this crisis with the overwhelming positive force of a united Canada, because we are going to build. Build baby build.” - Newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney on his government’s plan for Canada.

Word of the Week

Realignment - the action of changing or restoring something to a different or former position or state.

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Show Data

Episode Title: The Media Hide, The People Decide
Teaser: We discuss the federal election results including the NDP’s woes, Conservative’s gains and Carney’s eventual win. We look at how the results matter for BC and Alberta, and also Niagara Falls’ unchecked immigration problems.
Production Code: WC-416-2025-05-03
Recorded Date: May 3, 2025
Release Date: May 4, 2025
Duration: 1:03:28
Edit Notes: Shane pause x2 (Patreon, Edmonton Centre)

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX