The News Rundown

China is imposing 100% tariffs on Canadian canola

Canada is facing even more tariffs this week, and they aren't even from the US this time, but they are in response to Canadian actions this time, as Canada is facing tariff threats on one of its major exports.
Canada’s canola industry, which includes farmers and a growing crushing and processing industry, is entering uncertain times as China imposes 100 per cent tariffs last Thursday and operates under the threat of looming tariffs from the United States.
Canadian canola meal and oil face 100 percent tariffs from China starting on March 20. The provinces of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba have been lobbying the Canadian government for help for farmers, but no relief has yet been announced.
Meanwhile, canola producers also face possible 25 per cent tariffs from the U.S. starting April 2, along with potential reciprocal tariffs as part of U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration’s attempts to overhaul trade policy.
China is imposing the tariffs following an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola, undertaken by the Chinese government in September of 2024 after the Canadian government joined the U.S. in imposing a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles along with a 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum. Dumping refers to when goods are sold in a jurisdiction for a lower price than in their country of origin. The Government of Canada has denied the dumping allegations.
Of course, following the US and Canada working in lockstep against China, there was an election in the US that changed the government there, and China isn't facing a united North American opposition anymore.
In 2024 Canada exported $920-million worth of canola meal to China along with $20-million worth of oil. Saskatchewan accounted for half of Canada’s overall canola oil exports and 41 per cent of canola meal exports. That same year Canada sent $4-billion worth of canola seed to China.
Meanwhile, in 2024 Canada exported $7.7-billion worth of canola meal and oil to the U.S, making it the largest taker of Canadian value-added canola. Canada exported just under 300,000 tonnes of canola seed south of the border.
The U.S. and China are the two biggest markets for Canadian canola. The Canola Council of Canada said there is room for the industry to grow in southeast Asia, specifically in the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia, where canola meal could potentially help support growing feed industries. But Chris Davison, chief executive with the Canola Council of Canada, said new markets are not a replacement for ones that are already established.
China is heavily reliant on Canadian canola and has limited options when it comes to replacing Canadian canola. In part, this is because China stopped canola imports from Australia, the second biggest canola exporter, over disputes about crop disease.
Producers were in a precarious spot even before China announced its plans to impose its tariffs. Bill Prybylski, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS), said the threat of across-the-board tariffs from the U.S. has left Canadian farmers with limited options, and if tariffs are applying to multiple crops, it's hard to plan what to switch to.
It may be too late for farmers to change their growing plans anyway. Prybylski said farmers generally plan their crop rotations over three-to-four years ahead of time. He said he isn’t aware of any farmers changing their crop plans amid the current uncertainty.
Canada’s newly installed Minister of Agriculture Kody Blois said in a posting on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he recently talked with his Alberta counterpart about using business risk management programs to support farmers impacted by tariffs, but so far nothing concrete has been reached.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has said the planned Chinese tariffs have the potential to do serious damage to the local economy: “It’ll close crushing plants, I can’t be more clear.”
China has imposed limits on Canadian canola before, only to remove them later. In 2019, China revoked the export licences for two Canadian canola sellers in retaliation for Canada’s arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, made at the request of the U.S. After the Chinese business executive was allowed to leave Canada, the two companies were given their licences back.
The growing trade war has upended recent efforts to improve relations between Ottawa and Beijing from the low point of 2019 and 2020. But let us not forget that the communist government of China is not Canada's friend. Relations are even more tense after it was revealed Wednesday that China has executed four Canadians for “drug-related crimes” this year. The media hasn't even reported on who these people are, or any other details about them, leading to much speculation.
Tariffs are becoming a part and parcel of Canadian life, and we're going to have to get used to it. Canada's success will come if our government's can help our citizens and industry weather the short term storm as we hopefully move to being more self reliant as the geopolitical situation remains unstable.

What started this week as an investment in the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act has become the second ballot question in the upcoming federal election yet no one knows it yet.
The Critical Infrastructure Defence Amendment Act, 2025, would make amendments to the CIDA to update the definition of essential infrastructure to include facilities where oil and gas production and emission data and records are held, as well as the two-kilometre-deep border zone north of the Alberta-United States border.
Premier Danielle Smith said that the changes are needed to protect Albertans, the Albertan economy, and industry in the province.
She said, “These amendments would further assert Alberta's exclusive provincial jurisdiction to develop its natural resources and ensure our southern border remains secure. We will not tolerate the continuous and unconstitutional overreaches made by the federal government. Alberta will continue its pursuit of doubling our oil and gas production to meet the growing global demand for energy and we will not let Ottawa stand in the way of our province's future prosperity.”
Updating the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act to include facilities where oil and gas production and emission data and records are held will help protect Alberta’s economy and the province’s ability to continue producing responsible energy to meet the world’s growing demands.
The idea behind these changes are to prevent uninvited federal intrusions into oil and gas sites where they would seek to extract emissions data.
The province is strengthening protections using the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act to be in line with the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act motion passed in December 2024 regarding emissions data.
The province is also doubling down on the southern border with the Americans in order to make a statement to the Americans that the Alberta border will be secure and dealt with appropriately.
Simply, the province is doing 4 things:
Protecting energy production by designating oil and gas sites as well as facilities that hold emissions data, as essential infrastructure.
Blocking federal overreach – Denying federal workers access to our facilities and the information they contain.
Defending Alberta’s constitutional rights – Reminding Ottawa that Section 92A of the Constitution gives provinces, not the feds, exclusive jurisdiction over resource development.
Securing Alberta’s border – Cementing the two-kilometre-deep security zone into law to prevent disruptions at the Canada-U.S. border.
Many may wonder, why is Premier Smith pushing these changes through now?
The Premier met with the Prime Minister and he apparently told her that there would be no emissions cap, however, later it was said that the national emissions cap would still be in place.
With the likely upcoming federal election the province has put forward a list of demands for the next Prime Minister, whoever that may be, that should be addressed within the first six months of their term to avoid “an unprecedented national unity crisis.”
With that, the legislation changes earlier in the week pave the way to executing on this list of demands.
The list includes:

Guaranteeing Alberta full access to oil and gas corridors to the north, east, and west
Repealing Bill C-69 (aka. “no new pipelines act”)
Lifting the tanker ban off the BC coast
Eliminating the oil and gas emissions cap, which is a production cap
Scrapping the so-called Clean Electricity Regulations
Ending the prohibition on single use plastics
Abandoning the net-zero car mandate
Returning oversight of the industrial carbon tax to the provinces
Halting the federal censorship of energy companies

This list has the establishment media from around the country running crazy as well as the opposition NDP.
A similar list of demands was also endorsed by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.
Danielle Smith also has made it clear that the province will not support an export tax or restriction of Alberta’s oil and gas to the United States and that the province is no longer agreeable to subsidizing other large provinces who are fully capable of funding themselves.
She also highlighted the mismanagement of the national parks resulting in Jasper’s wildfire last year.
In a press conference following the announcements Smith said that if Alberta is brushed aside on these demands, the UCP government will ask Albertans what they want to do.
There could be a Next Steps panel, there could be a referendum, and Smith herself said, “I always feel like big important decisions need to be put to a referendum of all Albertans. Is there some referendum question the public wants us to ask?”
NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has said that Smith should just hold a sovereignty referendum and then resign if it fails.
The reality of the situation is that Alberta has had the resources available and for the last 9 and a half years the answer has been no and the province has been extorted by the federal government.
There is a very real chance that if the Liberals were to win another mandate there would be a national unity crisis if the government elected is not inherently friendly to the energy industry.
Through the Supreme Court of Canada’s secession reading following the Quebec referendum and the 2000 federal Clarity Act there is a very real world where the province could initiate a sovereignty referendum.
The intellectuals of the Canadian establishment will say that that the Clarity Act and Quebec secession Supreme Court ruling rule the land but in reality all it would take would be for one international country to recognize Alberta’s sovereignty.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said that Smith’s demands are “very reasonable” and that Carney is trying to get people to believe that he has changed from his “radical net-zero keep-it-in-the-ground ideology.”
The ballot question as framed by the media has been who is best to handle Donald Trump and guide Canada through the tariff situation with the United States. However, we are now left to ask, what if the actual ballot question became: who is best to avert a national unity crisis?
Supplementals:

Alaska senator threatens to halt cruise ships from coming to B.C.

The antagonistic battle between BC Premier David Eby and members of the US government continues this week. While the power grab bill that we discussed on last week's episode of Western Context is finally making its rounds through the mainstream media this week, and as such the new battle of words set off by Eby has not received that much coverage yet.
Eby's response to the US tariff and annexation threat has been very acerbic, and yet we have to wonder if it will actually bring more harm to British Columbians than not.
BC pulled government subsidies for people to install Tesla Inc. chargers, widening efforts to spurn US goods in a trade war with President Donald Trump. The rebate program allows British Columbians to get up to $350 to purchase and install an EV charger in their homes. Tesla vehicle chargers, batteries and inverters are no longer eligible for rebates as of March 12, the province’s power company BC Hydro said in a notice on its website.
“The Government of BC and BC Hydro are taking action to preference Canadian goods in our rebate programs going forward and to exclude, where practicable, US produced goods,” the notice said, singling out Tesla. Products from other US brands like Ford Motor Co. still appeared eligible via a search function.
Eby was asked why the change happened, and whether the change to the rebate policy applied to all U.S. manufacturers or just Tesla. “Yeah, it’s just for Tesla, and it’s because of Elon Musk. I think if tens of thousands of taxpayers’ money was going to Elon Musk, they would want to throw up, so we removed them.”
While Eby remains committed to witty zingers for the press, we have to wonder if his hardstyle retaliation is going to create a lasting impact on British Columbians, and shock the economy. Many people view Donald Trump's actions as harming the economy because it creates uncertainty, and David Eby's rapid retaliatory actions can be doing the same for BC's economy in much the same way.
For example, a renewable energy business in Saanich is left with heavy inventory to move following the energy rebate changes. Josh Shepherd, the general manager of High Tide Energy, only received the email from BC Hydro notifying industry members of the change to the energy rebate program at the end of the same day the changes were made, leaving no room to pivot or make provisions.
BC Hydro’s most commonly referenced rebate is the $350 rebate for eligible British Columbians to install an EV charger in their homes. However, BC Hydro rebates go far beyond a few hundred bucks.
High Tide Energy doesn't work with electric vehicles. It performs battery storage and solar panel installations for commercial and residential clients and remote Indigenous communities. These products help store energy to use later, serve as a back-up generator during power outages and help lower energy costs. Because of the hefty installation cost, BC Hydro provides rebates for these products around the $10,000 to $20,000 mark.
Shepherd says the bulk of his clients signed up for the green energy upgrade because of the rebate. BC Hydro’s email says customers who submitted their rebate application by March 12, 2025 will still be eligible for the rebate, but Shepherd says the language used may lead to some being denied. In addition, they now have inventory sitting for Tesla Powerwall installations, totalling 'several hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of stock' that will be hard to move.
More than just Tesla though, David Eby is also antagonizing our nearest US neighbours too. Eby’s recent announcement that commercial trucks travelling through B.C. from Washington and up to Alaska will be forced to pay new fees was met with hostility from Alaskan politicians, who of course rely on trucks travelling through BC on the Alaska highway to get goods to the northernmost US state.
In response to this, Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan wants to take legal action to prevent cruise ships from stopping at British Columbia ports, permanently. Sullivan says if he can’t get legislation through, he’ll push for an executive order.
“Two can play this game. So, Canada, you don’t want to mess with Alaska. If you do, we’re going to work hard on having our cruise ships bypass your ports, and that’ll help our economy tremendously. It’ll help our tourism industry tremendously, and it’ll really hurt their tourism. They’re playing a dangerous game here. I hope they back down.”
He went on to say the legislation would “take billions of dollars” of tourism revenue away from western Canadian provinces. The last time cruise ships were diverted from B.C. ports was during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic to help stop the spread of the virus.
Sullivan cited the Passenger Vessel Services Act (PVSA), which bans foreign cruise ships from transporting passengers between two U.S. ports without stopping at a foreign port; in this case, those are ports in B.C. This was signed into law in 1886, and that’s what Sullivan wants to circumvent. The legislation is often discussed in conjunction with The Jones Act, otherwise known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, which is similar. The latter was designed predominantly for cargo ships but applies to cruises as well.
The Ministry of Transportation says the B.C. government “values” its relationship with Alaska. It adds the premier spoke with the governor two weeks ago about the “strong connections” the two jurisdictions have.
A statement from the Ministry says: “To be very clear — the legislation does not impose fees on Alaska-bound trucks. It just gives B.C. the tools to do so down the road if Trump continues to escalate his threats towards B.C. and Canada. This is not something British Columbia wants to do, but we need to have this tool if the U.S. does not back away from their unjust tariffs.”
Cruise ship season is just beginning. We'll see if cooperation between the two countries continues, or if one government or the other will just decide abruptly to change things further. For BC, David Eby's fight fire with fire technique may lead to more pain ahead.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

A lost decade under the Liberals

With the stage set for a likely election call this Sunday we need to look at the hard numbers on what the last 9 and a half years provided Canadians.
The answer as has been put by the Toronto Sun editorial team is: a lost decade.
On the surface this may seem extreme but the numbers back up that idea.
Canada’s inflation adjust GDP per capita, which is commonly used to measure prosperity in the OECD, fell by 1.4% in 2024, followed by a 1.3% drop in 2023.
Comparing this to the American progress made, the US GDP per capital was about $66,000 while Canada’s was about $44,000. A gap of roughly $22,000 increasing to $28,000 in 2024 dollars.
U of C economist Trevor Tombe wrote that real GDP per capita was 43% higher in the US than in Canada in 2023. He also estimates that unchanged the gap will widen to nearly 50% and that the divergence is unprecedented in modern history.
Looking at GDP per capita growth across the OECD countries, Canada is second to last only ahead of Luxembourg.
Canada’s growth from 2015Q1 to 2024Q3 was 1.4% while the US came in at 18.2%, the G7 at 12.6%, and the EU came in at 13.4%.
Factoring out 2015 makes the results worse. One might blame the pandemic but other countries all faired better.
Immigration levels at close to 500,000 per year in 2023 and 2024 didn’t help matters both from the direct effect of lowering GDP per capita and putting increased strain on our systems.
Immigration is one thing that needs to be fixed. Housing, social services, and an infrastructure deficit all need to be fixed.
The lost decade also manifests itself in terms of Canadian happiness.
Canada has slipped to 18th in the Global Happiness Report down 3 spots from last year where in 2015 it ranked 5th.
Rankings are determined based on having someone to count on, GDP per capital, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity, and perception of corruption.
Canada ranked 15th and 16th globally for perceptions of corruption and GDP, respectively, but 35th for social support and 68th for freedom to make life choices. About 18 per cent of Canadians in the report said they were dissatisfied with their freedom to choose what they do with their lives.
Finland came out on top in the happiness report next to Denmark and Iceland.
Happiness is typically thought of as an individual issue and one person can be unhappy and many won’t bat an eye.
But according to Felix Cheung, a Canada Research Chair in population well-being said that “when a country is unhappy, this is a structural issue, and a structural issue requires a structural problem."
The Happiness Report found that Canadian quality of life has declined over the last decade driven primarily by those under 30.
Certain groups have higher unhappiness levels such as members of the “2SLGBTQI+ community”, people with low income, and First Nations, Métis, and Inuit people.
There has also been a shift in what it means to be a young person with housing affordability and a sense of uncertainty as broader social trends that started long before COVID, when one might assume happiness started declining.
What this means is that even though someone may be hard working, they aren’t necessarily allowed to move up the social ladder.
The Toronto Sun’s Editorial Board’s definition of a Lost Decade is backed up with economic and policy data.
The idea of a lost decade can also be backed up with societal data in terms of the country’s happiness, the ability for people to climb the societal ladder, and how they feel they’re progressing compared to their parents.
Everything in this segment is backed up by data of one form or another. The idea of a lost decade is real and it is one way of summarizing what many in Canada have been feeling.
With a likely election call this Sunday shortly after the episode is released we felt it was necessary to discuss what a lost decade is, share some data, and open the question to our listeners: has Canada experienced a lost decade?
If so, does it make sense to re-elect a Liberal government? Or should the Conservatives form government instead?
Supplementals:

Quote of the Week

“Two can play this game. So, Canada, you don’t want to mess with Alaska. If you do, we’re going to work hard on having our cruise ships bypass your ports, and that’ll help our economy tremendously. It’ll help our tourism industry tremendously, and it’ll really hurt their tourism. They’re playing a dangerous game here. I hope they back down.” - Alaskan Senator Dan Sullivan on BC Premier David Eby’s proposal to toll Alaska trucks.

Word of the Week

Dumping - the intentional mass export of goods to other countries where those goods are sold below the importing country's market price.

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Show Data

Episode Title: Dumping on Trade
Teaser: China is imposing tariffs on Canadian canola, Danielle Smith has a list of national unity demands, and David Eby continues his trade crusade against the US. Also, we look at Canada’s unhappiness and the idea of a lost decade.
Production Code: WC-410-2025-03-22
Recorded Date: March 22, 2025
Release Date: March 23, 2025
Duration: 1:03:37
Edit Notes: Blois

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX