The News Rundown

Alberta launches national ad campaign to 'scrap the cap'

Scrap The Cap.
This week Alberta launched a new $7 million national ad campaign targeting the federal government's emissions cap.
The logic being that the proposed emission cap on oil and gas emissions would effectively act to harm the industry and ultimately kill jobs.
Premier Danielle Smith commented, "Once again, Ottawa is attempting to set policies that are shortsighted and reckless. We're challenging proposed policy that would stifle our energy industry, kill jobs and ruin economies by launching a national campaign that tells Ottawa to 'scrap the cap’.”
The cap would have industries cut emissions by 35-38% of 2019 levels by 2030.
This of course means lower emissions than we have today and more cuts than technology can deliver. That in turn leads to a reduction in production from the industry.
It’s a basic series of events one may look at in energy economics.
A report from the Alberta government says that the cap would lead to a production drop by one million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030.
The campaign also makes the connection that this is not an Alberta only issue.
The starting point is that there’s less revenues so with that it would lead all Canadians to a lower standard of living and reduced services.
The government also says that the cap and lower production can lead to higher food costs.
Economists including Andrew Leach who advised the one-term NDP government of Rachel Notley on their carbon tax feels that such a thing wouldn’t happen.
But the chain of logic on food cost increases is that people will have less money overall and the economy won’t generate as much income and productivity so while prices continue to rise, food becomes relatively more expensive.
The report from the Alberta government suggests if this cap were to come to fruition the average Canadian family would have about $419 less per month that could be spent on groceries, gas, or housing.
This policy was one that was hinted at by environment minister Stephen Guilbeault but the government denied it existed or was coming until it was announced. Now regulations are set to be finalized in 2025.
The report commissioned by the Alberta government done by Deloitte says that Alberta’s GDP in 2040 (at the end of the projections done) would be down 4.5% and Canada’s down 1%.
That’s why the federal government is doing it.
Cumulatively from 2030-2040 the real GDP in Alberta would be $191b lower and in Canada $91b lower.
Employment, jobs, and yes take home income are all affected with an average of 55,000 jobs lost in Alberta and 35,000 across the rest of the country.
You can read this report on the Alberta government website which as of recording has been downloaded about 600 times.
Saskatchewan also issued a similar report from their Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal that says the province would lose between $4.8b and $7.1b in royalty taxes and another $22.1 billion to $43.3 billion in government revenue by 2050 under the federal policies.
Politically this is an extra engagement strategy for voters with the Smith government as they go into what is going to be a charged and divisive fall session.
Alberta governments since 2019 have made the Trudeau administration their target. No one should be surprised this has been done.
Alberta gets out of all of this if the Trudeau government disappears before then. Energy prices have guided and driven Alberta governments for decades to a degree other provinces probably are not aware of.
That’s why the ad campaign will air in Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
Just like Pierre Poilievre has Axe the Tax, Danielle Smith has Scrap the Cap.
Combined with Alberta Is Calling, we’ll see what Alberta’s federal influence looks like.
Supplementals:

It’s the last week of the British Columbia election campaign and after a busy long weekend full of promises from the BC Conservatives, including a new Children’s Hospital for Surrey, the party released its costed platform on Tuesday, a few days after advance voting had already started, and just days before the official voting day on Saturday.
Leader John Rustad said the party is expecting the province’s GDP to grow to 5.4 per cent by 2030, compared to the NDP’s estimation of 3.1 per cent.
“If BC had a government that took economic growth seriously, we’d have over $10 billion more per year for the services we need – at no cost to taxpayers,” the Conservatives explained.
The Conservatives would eliminate the provincial deficit of nearly $9 billion within two terms of government, Rustad shared, as the party looks to “kick-start BC’s economy” to pay for its tax cuts and capital spending.
The Conservatives said in its platform costing: “Our plan for Common Sense Change contains a series of bold proposals to get BC’s economy working again. We will Get BC Building – to finally end the housing shortage that artificially constrains so many other sectors of the economy. And instead of tying up jobs and investment in redundant red tape, we will make BC the best place in Canada to run a small business, while responsibly developing the natural resources that have sustained BC for generations,” the Conservatives said in its platform costing.
“Getting the economy working again is hard work, but some decisions will be easy. For example, simply by repealing the NDP’s unaffordable ‘Clean BC’ scheme, BC’s economy will be $28 billion richer in 2030 – and that’s according to modelling conducted by the NDP government,” it said.
However, Rustad shared that the party’s costed platform does not include any major capital spending, with the newly promised Surrey children’s hospital, Pattullo Bridge expansion, Highway 1 widening, or the proposed Massey Tunnel replacement not included in the projected costs. Rustad said of the hospital: "However, until we actually are able to draw the designs, until we’re able to work with the health care professionals to make sure we know exactly what goes in there, it would be inappropriate for me to put that kind of a number [in the budget].”
Rustad said: “We will be adding, over the next two years, $2.3 billion in additional spending, plus the additional tax relief that we’re looking at putting on top of that. Overall though, by getting our economy going, by increasing what I’m expecting to do, that is what is going to level that out and bring down our deficit over the two terms.”
The party wants to bring in private auto insurance companies to compete with ICBC, and eliminate the PST on used cars. Major uncosted infrastructure pledges include a new road bridge across Okanagan Lake and extending SkyTrain in Surrey.
Rustad explained that the party expects, if elected, next year’s deficit to increase to just under $11 billion, as it plans to spend more than a $1 billion each year over top of the NDP’s costed platform. The NDP has said its platform promises this election would cause government revenue to drop by more than $1.5 billion, while it forecasts the province’s budget deficit to increase next year to $9.6 billion.
The 114-page “common sense change for British Columbians” platform includes tax cuts for renters and homeowners across the province, “unlocking” mining in B.C., reproductive health care changes, a plan to grow food production, and plans to address the health care crisis and mental health and addictions.
The leaders of both the BC Greens and BC NDP were out taking aim at the BC Conservatives’ election platform Tuesday morning. Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau says it’s “laughable” that the Conservatives took so long to release their election platform. She claims hers is “the only party that actually has a costed platform and a serious way to pay for what we are proposing in this province.”
Meanwhile, NDP Leader David Eby also took time in his Tuesday morning public appearance to target Rustad. Eby says Rustad has promised to undertake an unspecified cost review that will result in major cuts to health-care at a time when the system is already under significant strain.
While Eby has repeatedly claimed that a Conservative government would cut health-care services in the province, their platform does include provisions for additional spending in the realm of around $1.4 billion over the next two years.
Stewart Prest, a political scientist at UBC says while the budget doesn’t reveal much about how the Conservatives would prioritize health-care spending over education, for example, it does show that they’re not really trying to appear fiscally conservative.
He said: “They are not going to be in a hurry to bring the deficit under control. An eight-year timeline is a long one, and it’s not really that much different than what the NDP is saying,”
While he says every new government would need time to figure out the finer details of how they’ll put in their plans, he still has a lot of questions about the proposed budget.
Overall, Prest says, he has the sense they’re putting it out just so they can say they did, saying: “It does have a bit of a box-checking exercise about it. The Conservatives now have something they can point to, to say that they have thought about these issues, even if not all questions are answered.
Overall, when it comes to the economy, it's baffling how it took the BC Conservatives so long to put out a platform that actually has them going further into deficit than the NDP, but promising to balance that within two terms simply seems optimistic when they also plan tax cuts too. One hopes that the reason why they'd be able to balance the budget comes down to not spending too many resources on vanity projects or social programs that have been proven to not work.
In any case, this election comes down to who British Columbians feel is best suited for leading the province. Polls show that the Greens will likely be inconsequential, unless the Conservatives and NDP will be so close in seat totals. This unpredictable election will come down to the wire, and we'll see who wins. Our next show will definitely go over the results of the election and how that will affect BC and Canada.
Supplementals:

Trudeau tells inquiry some Conservative parliamentarians are involved in foreign interference

The foreign interference inquiry in Ottawa continued this week with testimony from Justin Trudeau.
It has been a rough week for Justin Trudeau with the revelations that India was heavily involved in targeting Canadians resulting in the explosion of several Indian diplomats. Trudeau is also facing said internal pressure from caucus over his leadership that may or may not result in anything substantive happening to his leadership.
As a result we saw a desperate move by the Prime Minister where he attempted to turn the channel from the other issues facing his administration.
The Prime Minister suggested that there were Conservative parliamentarians that engaged in or were at risk from foreign interference.
But upon cross examination he admitted that the list also includes Liberals as well as those from other parties.
He also subsequently requested that Pierre Poilievre take a briefing yet again but Pierre Poilievre has not taken a briefing as that would limit his ability to talk on this issue.
Poilievre’s chief of staff has a security clearance and has been briefed and could handle any issues with the Conservative caucus should they turn up.
There has also been a discussion in some online circles that Pierre Poilievre can’t get a security clearance but as a member of cabinet in the previous government, he did indeed have one.
Upon Trudeau’s testimony Poilievre issued a statement requesting the Prime Minister release all the names.
Poilievre said, "My message to Justin Trudeau is: release the names of all MPs that have collaborated with foreign interference. But he won't. Because Justin Trudeau is doing what he always does: he is lying. He is lying to distract from a Liberal caucus revolt against his leadership and revelations he knowingly allowed Beijing to interfere and help him win two elections."
Poilievre used his statement to highlight that he received a briefing by the National Security and Intelligence Advisor to the Prime Minister on Indian foreign interference.
He also highlighted that his chief of staff received classified briefings from the government and at no time has anyone mentioned Conservative parliamentarians or candidates knowingly participating in foreign interference.
The point is that if the Prime Minister and those around him have this kind of information they should share it and the Prime Minister could even list all the names.
Media reporting on the spectacle ranged from covering the allegations to running cover for Trudeau in discussing moves made with former CSIS officials who didn’t outright side with the PM but basically said we’re being taken for a political spin here by the Conservative leader.
But one thing out of all of this is clear, the foreign interference inquiry was used as a spectacle by Justin Trudeau that could very well result in footage being captured for the next liberal attack ad.
We know this was an act because at the end of it all Trudeau apologized. Something he rarely does.
Pierre Poilievre could take the briefing and automatically eject anyone who was compromised or wittingly took part but that would put the Liberals back in the driver's seat and the Conservatives on the defensive - a position they have not been in for a long time.
That covers the political angle of this but the reality is still very murky.
We don’t know who exactly was compromised and it’s difficult to wager a guess most of the time.
At this point we’re waiting for the final report and recommendations by the inquiry but if this week's events are any indication this inquiry will not yield anything actionable on past events and going forward our only option is to increase our electoral security.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

How Indian government agents in Canada targeted Modi’s opponents

This week we're learning more about the Indian government's relationship with Canada, and how government sanctioned employees working as diplomats and consular workers in India’s high commission in Ottawa and consulates in Vancouver and Toronto were behind dozens of violent crimes across Canada that targeted opponents of the Modi government.
These Indian agents played key roles in a wave of shootings, killings, threats, arsons and extortions in Canada, according to senior sources familiar with the matter.
The victims were mostly supporters of the Khalistan movement, which seeks independence for India’s Sikh-majority Punjab region. But others were simply rivals of the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In response, the Canadian government announced Monday it was expelling six Indian diplomats and consular officials “in relation to a targeted campaign against Canadian citizens by agents linked to the government of India.” India retaliated by ordering the expulsion of six high-ranking Canadian diplomats including the acting high commissioner and said it had withdrawn its envoy from Canada.
In his remarks before a public inquiry looking into foreign interference in Canadian politics, Trudeau had criticised India's response to the investigation into Hardeep Singh Nijjar's killing in June 2023. Nijjar was shot and killed in Surrey, and had been a vocal supporter of the Khalistan movement. According to Trudeau, he was briefed on the murder later that summer and received intelligence that made it "incredibly clear" that India was involved in the killing.
Intelligence has also linked India to a recent shooting on Vancouver Island that saw 14 bullets fired at the home of Punjabi Canadian singer AP Dhillon. Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma allegedly oversaw the operation. Another Ottawa-based diplomat, as well as two consular officials in Toronto and another two in Vancouver, were allegedly involved.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police said in an earlier news conference the government of India had undertaken a broad campaign against Indian dissidents including homicides and extortion. It had also used organised crime to target the South Asian community in Canada and interfered in democratic processes, police said.
Brigitte Gauvin, RCMP's assistant commissioner, said "what we have seen is...the use of organised crime elements" and named "the Bishnoi group". She said the group "we believe...is connected to the agents of the Government of India". Lawrence Bishnoi is the head of an organised criminal syndicate. He is in a jail in western India awaiting trial on terrorism charges.
It is not unusual for a country to assign intelligence agents to an embassy or consulate under diplomatic cover. But it would be extraordinary for them to take part in crimes in their host country.
It is also illegal, but before the alleged agents could be charged, Ottawa would have to ensure they were not protected by the immunity granted to foreign diplomats and consular officers.
In this case, Canada appears to have decided not to prosecute and instead treat it as a diplomatic incident, notifying the government of India early Monday it was expelling the six diplomatic and consular officials.
Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said the government had requested India to remove the diplomatic immunity of six diplomats so that the Canadian investigative agencies could question them regarding the allegations of criminal activity. But since India did not co-operate, it had to expel the diplomats.
Joly said: "We're not seeking diplomatic confrontation with India. But we will not sit quietly as agents of any country are linked to efforts to threaten, harass or even kill Canadians."
India has repeatedly denied the allegations and on Monday called the suggestion that its high commissioner and other diplomats were involved “preposterous.” But the RCMP commissioner Mike Duheme said a multidisciplinary team was created in February 2024 to coordinate the many investigations into crimes stemming from the Indian plot.
This is the latest souring of relations between Canada and South Asia's biggest country. One has to wonder if India's government is posing such a huge problem for Canada why the Trudeau government continues to import a disproportionate amount of immigrants from India, anywhere between 30-40% of the total amount of the past few years. By importing from just one country, we're also importing foreign problems into Canada, as we have now seen. Maybe the Canadian government will finally see the error of its ways, or will continue to stick its head in the sand.
Supplemental:

Quote of the Week

"Once again, Ottawa is attempting to set policies that are shortsighted and reckless. We're challenging proposed policy that would stifle our energy industry, kill jobs and ruin economies by launching a national campaign that tells Ottawa to 'scrap the cap’.” - Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on why the province is introducing a new ad campaign against Ottawa.

Word of the Week

cap - an upper limit

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Show Data

Episode Title: Caps and Costs
Teaser: Alberta launches a national ad campaign, the BC Conservatives released their platform just days before the election, and Trudeau says he knows who is involved in foreign interference. Also, Canada expels Indian diplomats.
Recorded Date: October 17, 2024
Release Date: October 18, 2024
Duration: 59:57
Edit Notes: Foreign interference story closing

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX