The News Rundown

Another Blow to Trudeau: Liberals Lose a Long-Held Seat

This past Monday Canada saw two by-elections, one in Manitoba’s Elmwood-Transcona that the NDP held and one in Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun that the Bloc Quebécois picked up from the Liberals.
The big story here is the loss for the Liberals in Montreal which we’ll get to momentarily but first a look at the results of Elmwood-Transcona.
The NDP came in first with 48% of the vote and the Conservatives improved their vote share by almost 16% coming in 4 points behind the NDP.
The Liberals on the other hand came in at just under 5% of the vote. This means that the Liberals are in trouble in Western Canada and are likely on the cusp of becoming a regional party.
We see this as a result of Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun as well.
This seat was formerly held by Justice Minister and Attorney General David Lametti who was ejected out of cabinet randomly and subsequently he quit as a MP and years back it was held by Liberal juggernaut and leader Paul Martin.
In a three way race between the Bloc, Liberals, and NDP we saw Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé emerge victorious after a night of swapping lead changes. At the end all 3 of these parties came within 620 votes of each other.
The Liberal candidate knew what was up and left her campaign headquarters early in the evening despite coming in second. The NDP had hopes of winning the seat but the story of the night was the Liberal’s 15%+ drop in support since the last election.
The NDP probably destroyed their hopes of winning this winnable seat by courting too much support from the pro-palestinian rallies. This play is likely something that would work marginally better in English Canada rather than Quebec.
It has long been documented by Western Context that for appropriate coverage of Canadian events, sometimes we need to turn to international outlets.
The New York Times says “support for the Liberals has evaporated, even in their last few strongholds” and that this defeat could be the “endgame” for Justin Trudeau.
The article also points out that now the Bloc Quebécois will be more likely to extract concessions from the Trudeau government given the evaporation of the NDP’s confidence and supply deal.
The Conservatives will be tabling a non-confidence motion in the house this coming Tuesday and the government could fall on Wednesday but both the Bloc and NDP have said that they will not support the motion.
Nothing. Has. Changed.
Only now the Bloc is going to be more emboldened to extract concessions from the Trudeau government such as an increase on the guaranteed income supplement for seniors and assurances that supply management will not be touched. Time will tell if Trudeau agrees to this.
Though it remains unclear if Trudeau grasps the dire situation he is in.
Following the results from both by-elections Trudeau said that Canadians need to “be more engaged”.
In particular, “We need people to understand what’s at stake in this upcoming election. Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to — to win and hold Verdun — but there is more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it.”
The lack of awareness and accountability here is striking. It is Canadians' fault and Canadians need to better understand what is going on.
He continued, “the big thing is to make sure that Canadians understand that the choice they get to make in the next election about the kind of country we are really matters”
And just like the marching ants they are cabinet minister after cabinet minister echoed this sentiment from Francois Philipe Champagne to Jonathan Wilkinson, covering the country east to west and top to bottom said it’s all about showing Canadians the stakes.
What is clear from these results is that the Liberals have hit the iceberg, the cabinet is playing cheery music on deck while the NDP and Bloc attempt to find the lifeboats and distance themselves from the Trudeau administration.
The government won’t fall this week but the final political acts are being staged for the coming sessions and while the NDP and Bloc attempt to extract concessions the Liberals are trying to save the fine china.
Supplementals:

The official BC election campaign begins as we record this on Saturday, but if you looked at what happened this week in the province, you might be forgiven for thinking it began yesterday, last weekend, a few weeks ago or even earlier in the summer with how the BC NDP's David Eby and the BC Conservative's John Rustad have been sparring with each other back and forth.
B.C.'s provincial election period begins when the province's lieutenant-governor, on the advice of the premier, dissolves the legislature and issues orders to begin the official election campaign.
The chief electoral officer will then issue writs — official documents, issued in the name of the King, that state an election is underway — to each of the province's 93 ridings, some of which have been changed from the previous election. British Columbians are scheduled to head to the polls on Oct. 19. However, advance voting is slated for Oct. 10 to 13, 15 and 16.
While pre-election campaigning has been happening since late July, the official election campaign beginning Saturday will mean B.C. residents are likely to start seeing more lawn signs and more large events.
Large events include Friday's last pre-election campaign events for the party leaders, with David Eby taking his entourage to Surrey, which will likely be the main battleground between the Conservatives and NDP. Meanwhile, John Rustad was speaking to 2,200 delegates on the last day of the Union of B.C. Municipalities Convention in downtown Vancouver.
In his 20-minute speech to local elected officials, Rustad clarified a few of his positions, and the BC Conservative website was updated with the party's official platform. Rustad confirmed that he does believe human activity is contributing to climate change but, if he were elected premier, would drive down taxes related to combating a warming planet: "The climate change issue is real. There's no question there. Man is having an impact on our climate, there's no question there. But taxing people into poverty is not going to change the weather."
Rustad says he wants to take "a different approach" to addressing the province's changing climate and mentioned issues such as food production, water management and infrastructure but offered few details.
He said the current government's plan to favour non-fossil fuel-burning technologies such as EVs and heat pumps would put the province into an electricity deficit: "There's so much that needs to be done to be able to make sure we adapt to climate, but a big piece of it is also electrical generation," he said before speaking in favour of nuclear energy.
Rustad also told delegates that he would get rid of the carbon tax and the low carbon fuel emissions standard, saying it would improve affordability.
"It's making us uncompetitive. It's a huge cost structure, and the Conservative Party of British Columbia is committed to getting rid of those costs and returning that money back to people to be able to deal with the affordability," he said.
CBC says his statement comes just a week after David Eby said that if Ottawa dropped the legal requirement for carbon pricing, his New Democrat government would also drop the tax on consumers, however Rustad has been championing getting rid of the carbon tax for ages now.
Rustad also took aim at the B.C. NDP's housing policies, saying he would eliminate provisions under Bill 44, which allow multiplex housing in single-family homes neighbourhoods. He also promised action on crime, public safety, decriminalization and better treatment options for people suffering from addictions, including an expansion of involuntary care.
Rustad kicked off his official election campaign in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside at the neighbourhood’s CRAB Park, an area of Vancouver where the city recently spent thousands of dollars cleaning up homeless camps. The message behind the location was clear: Rustad believes Eby has not done as promised to reduce homelessness.
Meanwhile, the NDP have put out an online version of an attack ad, with the website rustadrisk.ca, completely with irritating music and few details. In it, you click on what applies to you, and the website supposedly calculates how much Rustad's plans will cost you, such as healthcare premiums, ICBC changes, transit healthcare and child tax rebates.
This election campaign seems a bit more fierce than most in BC lately, and that's because the NDP are finally realizing they have actual competition for the first time in 7 years. We'll keep a close eye and see how things go over the next month.
Supplementals:

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announces $8.6B in school builds

Alberta will be spending $8.6b on up to 30 new schools to create 200,000 new student spaces. The announcement was made on a Tuesday province-wide televised address by Premier Danielle Smith.
There will also be 20,000 new student spaces added through the creation of modular classrooms.
The program will be paid for by taking on debt in the form of long term loans.
This will raise the eyebrows of many Albertan conservatives who have wanted the province to not take on any debt and focus on getting that number down.
Danielle Smith began her push to the premiership by courting disgruntled Jason Kenney supporters as a result of Covid restrictions. This has been her base.
With coming changes to parental rights legislation Smith needs something that can be sold to everyday Albertans.
Everyday Albertans who are on the whole moderate expect good governance and good services to be provided by their government. This is what kept the Progressive Conservatives in power for decades.
These schools, if built, will represent one of the largest capital investments made in the province.
The province is also asking municipalities to expedite the approval and zoning process for building the schools.
Also to make things faster the province will own the schools outright and then lease them to the school board.
This also provides the ability for the government to list the new schools as assets in the budget rather than providing boards with grants to build the facilities.
The changes would also allow a school to be approved at any point in the budget year whereas no projects are only approved to process from one stage of the construction process to the next at the start of the budget cycle.
The NDP welcomed the new schools but said that by putting that much pressure on the construction industry in the province prices could be driven up and that the UCP should have done better in the past.
Many will remember the Alberta is Calling campaign that saw the province take out ads across the country to encourage people to move to the province.
Initially the campaign was panned when the Kenney government introduced it but it worked.
What also happened was the push of new arrivals from Justin Trudeau’s federal immigration stream.
Smith also used the address to call Trudeau out directly on immigration saying, “enough is enough. Let’s get back to a sane level of welcoming newcomers.”
She mentioned the 200,000 new arrivals we discussed last week and also mentioned that we need to be bringing people to the province who share our shared values.
This comment bothered many of the pro-immigration types and advocates for new arrivals but Smith boils it down to something simple that the majority of Albertans should agree on.
She points to freedom, family, community, faith, free speech, and free enterprise.
She left an interview with the Sun’s Rick Bell by saying, “I don’t think anyone would come to Alberta unless they shared those values. That’s why they’re choosing us. When you come to Alberta you leave the hatreds, the conflicts and the troubles from your home country.”
This is a simple fact that has made our immigration successful. Over the years of immigration during the Trudeau administration the government has forgot that.
By making changes and leaning into these values we make Canada great for All Canadians.
While the primary message was about education where Alberta stands on immigration couldn’t be more clear. A clarity that is often lacking today.
Supplementals:

B.C. to open 'highly secure' involuntary care facilities

Not even one day after we recorded last week's Western Context where we detailed David Eby's stunning reversal on the carbon tax, we were shocked to find another reversal.
David Eby, who initially believed in involuntary care, reversed course quickly into his premiership. He's now realized that that policy isn't working, and made a huge announcement on Sunday alongside Vancouver's mayor Ken Sim, the attorney general representatives from two First Nations and an expert provincial advisor.
Eby says that BC will be opening “highly secure facilities” where people with serious addiction and mental health issues, as well as brain injuries, will receive involuntary care. Eby said the move is a response to the current system “struggling” to respond to people with three overlapping issues: mental illness, brain injuries and addiction to synthetic opioids or stimulants.
“This is a group of people that need intensive interventionist support. They are not able to ask for help for themselves. They will not benefit from voluntary treatment. They require somebody to step in and recognize that they lack the capacity to look after themselves, to make decisions to keep themselves safe,” Eby said.
“It is absolutely critical to draw that distinction between the voluntary care that we need to expand and continue to expand, and this group of people that are incapable, by definition, of asking for the care that they need for the help that they need.”
The news conference comes after a review of the case of a triple-stabbing in Chinatown last year where the suspect, who had a violent history, was on a day pass from a forensic psychiatric facility. It also follows a gruesome homicide and maiming in Vancouver by a suspect that the city’s police chief described as a “very troubled” person.
BC Conservative Leader John Rustad was quick to react to the announcement, slamming Eby for “flip-flopping” on the issue and describing the move as “political posturing” as the election draws closer. Rustad’s party announced last week it would enact legislation and create facilities to enable involuntary treatment of people with “severe” addictions.
“Now, after our party clearly outlined a plan to bring compassion and accountability to addiction treatment, Eby is suddenly pretending to be on board. People of all ages are being abandoned to their addictions, left to suffer and die while this government hands out drug supplies instead of real help,” Rustad said in a statement.
The involuntary care plan is a detailed and reasonable proposal that, unfortunately for the BC NDP, may be four years, two premiers and two elections too late. If this proposal sounds familiar it’s because the BC NDP have been promising, and then reneging, on the issue since 2020.
That’s when then-premier John Horgan first introduced involuntary care legislation to allow youth to be held in hospital for up to a week after an overdose to get proper addictions and mental health support.
“I believe this is an important bill because I've talked to parents who've lost children, and they wanted action. They wanted government to do something, so there was at least a legacy for the loss of a loved one in their family.”
But Horgan faced criticism from groups that said such a change could scare youth from seeking help, traumatize Indigenous people whose family members were previously held by the state, violate civil rights and leave kids more vulnerable to overdoses if they chose to keep using. Horgan then backed off in 2021.
Then Eby came along, making involuntary care a centrepiece of his 2022 BC NDP leadership bid, saying: “This policy of non-intervention is one that can’t continue. If we can prevent some deaths and intervene earlier to support people, so that they at least have a shot, I think we should do it.”
Eby won the leadership and became premier. He faced off against the same critics as Horgan. Within four months, he backed down too. That led to Sunday, where the NDP reversed its previous reversal on involuntary care — which, just to be clear, reversed the reversal before that too. And now he's facing critics again.
The Canadian Civil Liberties Association, the organization that Eby once led before joining the NDP, has called on Eby to abandon the province's planned expansion of involuntary care for people suffering from a combination of drug addiction, brain injuries and mental health issues.
Rustad said: “They’ve had plenty of opportunity to be able to do this in the past, and they decided not to. And here they are now, flip-flopping and running against what their history has been.”
Rustad accused the NDP of ignoring families for years on the issue and only acting now out of political survival. The Conservatives have been pushing involuntary care, consistently, for months. Their proposal, though far less detailed, is likely similar enough to Eby’s as to be a wash in the minds of voters.
The question, then, is not necessarily who has the better plan for involuntary care, but who British Columbians trust more to actually follow through and get it done in power. On the one side, a new, untested party with a consistent message but no track record of actually executing anything. On the other, an experienced government, reversing course on major files in the twilight of its term as it scrambles to better read the public mood.
Involuntary care becoming part of the mass of evolving issues that voters will have to make a judgement call on when they mark their ballots on Oct. 19.
Supplementals:

Quote of the Week

“Now, after our party clearly outlined a plan to bring compassion and accountability to addiction treatment, Eby is suddenly pretending to be on board. People of all ages are being abandoned to their addictions, left to suffer and die while this government hands out drug supplies instead of real help.” - BC Conservative leader John Rustad on David Eby’s reversal on involuntary care

Word of the Week

Involuntary - done against someone's will, compulsory

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Show Data

Episode Title: Involuntary Inclusion
Teaser: The federal by-elections deal another loss to Trudeau’s Liberals, the BC election campaign officially starts, and Alberta is investing in new schools. Also, involuntary care becomes David Eby’s newest policy reversal.
Recorded Date: September 21, 2024
Release Date: September 22, 2024
Duration: 57;11
Edit Notes: None

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX