The News Rundown

Kevin Falcon to fold BC United Party, suspend campaign

Well, we've had a political earthquake happen this week in BC politics, so much so that the entire landscape has been changed irrevocably, especially so for the election on October 19th.
In a move that surprised many, BC United leader Kevin Falcon has moved to suspend BC United’s campaign in the fall election, and has encouraged all BC United supporters to unite behind BC Conservative leader John Rustad and the “Conservative Party of BC to prevent another four years of disastrous NDP government.”
Nominations of BC United candidates will be withdrawn to enable the Conservative Party of BC to draw from United’s pool of incumbent MLAs and candidates, according to the statement. Some of the United candidates are already being mentioned as possible MLAs for the BC Conservatives. Falcon himself will no longer be running in the election.
It was a decision Falcon made for the party without consulting his caucus or membership, under pressure from long-time allies and friends in the business community who were willing to abandon him publicly. While he is only suspending his party’s campaign rather than folding the entity, the move signals the death-knell of a coalition that has a long track record in government, and leaves a political gap for centrist voters who have been reluctant to embrace the New Democrats.
British Columbia’s centre-right has usually coalesced under a single banner. The Liberals ruled B.C. for 16 years before falling to an NDP-led minority government, and Falcon decided to change his party’s name from the BC Liberals to BC United in a rebranding exercise that went wrong. Just two weeks ago, a desperate move was made to appeal to Elections BC to allow United to also have the addendum "formerly the BC Liberals".
But the coalition fractured after Falcon tossed MLA John Rustad from caucus in 2022 for publicly expressing skepticism that climate change was caused by humans. Rustad, who was elected five times under the BC Liberal banner, then took over the moribund BC Conservative Party. BC United, the province’s Official Opposition, soon dropped to fourth place in the polls.
The fractious relationship between the two leaders stood in the way of merger talks for months, with neither side wanting to acquiesce to the other's demands. Bill Bennett, a former BC Liberal cabinet minister, and who considers both men as friends, was one of the voices urging the two to put aside their squabbling and come to an agreement.
Falcon, he said, was blindsided by how easy it seemed for Rustad to ride the same wave of popularity buoying Pierre Poilievre federally to lead the BC Conservatives out of the political hinterland.
Two days before United folded, Bennett said: “I don’t know what metaphor to use here, whether it’s a bandwagon or whether it’s a snowball rolling downhill or what it is, but he jumped on it. John’s got a very successful, emerging, boisterous brand – the Conservative brand – without having to really do anything.”
Rustad’s Conservatives – with a social conservative agenda and various candidates who advance conspiracy theories – is not the obvious heir to a big tent coalition style party with centrist leanings. The BC Liberals introduced North America’s first carbon tax, supported a dramatic expansion of supervised drug-consumption sites, and brought in sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) education in schools. The BC Conservatives have proposed to dismantle all of these policies, although there is no formal policy platform in place yet.
Falcon and Rustad met to negotiate a deal on Tuesday night while Falcon's party caucus and staff were oblivious. Caucus spokesperson Sean Roberts was busy posting attacks against the Conservatives on social media, saying they were assembling a “big circus tent” for folks with fringe views. He wasn’t going off script: Mr. Falcon had repeatedly attacked the BC Conservatives in similar language.
The next day, in the lead-up to his joint press conference with his former rival, Mr. Falcon had to make two “really hard” calls to the board of BC United Party and his candidates to break the news of his decision. He said publicly the Conservatives made no commitments to BC United’s incumbent MLAs or their dozens of candidates, just that the two parties would work together to have the Conservatives offer the “best field” to voters in the province’s 93 ridings.
The hastily called caucus meeting, held just minutes before Wednesday’s public announcement, ended badly. Liberal MLA Karin Kilpatrick demanded Falcon resign as leader, with Falcon abruptly ending the call after.
In a social-media post after the news conference, Kilpatrick made it clear that she isn’t ready to support a Conservative candidate in her riding. “You have left all of us middle-of-the-road centrist voters with no political home here in B.C. Thanks a lot,” she wrote. She said in an interview that she is considering running as an Independent.
Prince George-Valemount MLA Shirley Bond, a powerful member of Falcon’s caucus who has won six elections as a BC Liberal, bowed out of the election on Thursday. It was clear there was no home for her in the B.C. Conservative tent. A party loyalist through thick and thin, Bond took a shot at her party leader on her way out the door. “The decision made by BC United party leader Kevin Falcon to suspend our party’s election campaign came as a complete surprise to me,” she said in a statement.
Publicly, the NDP is celebrating the triumph of Mr. Rustad’s party over BC United. Heather Stoutenburg, provincial director of the NDP, said local campaigns raised double their normal haul on Wednesday after the deal was made public. Premier David Eby, who is set to formally start the Oct. 19 election campaign in just three weeks, recorded a video message shared on social media urging disaffected BC United members to join the NDP.
But the New Democrats will face a tougher contest, because they can no longer count on their rivals to split the centre-right vote. British Columbians who want the NDP out will face one main alternative. The unknown factor is whether Rustad’s social-conservative agenda will secure centrist voters.
On the face of it, Falcon's decision will make things more simple for British Columbians, with just 2 major choices, the NDP or Conservatives. Where people in the middle will end up is anyone's guess.
Supplementals:

Just hours before recording Justin Trudeau announced new Senate appointments for Alberta and yes as to be expected, he did not draw from Alberta’s list of Senators-in-Waiting.
For those unaware Alberta elects Senators and willing governments appoint from that list.
First announced was Kristopher Wells.
Wells is Canada Research Chair in the Public Understanding of Sexual and Gender Minority Youth and is also a vocal champion for the 2SLGBTQI+ community according to the Prime Minister’s press release.
Wells is also a vocal critic of parental rights and for years has been the media’s go-to person whenever something contentious comes up regarding the LGBTQ community or a government does something that might run counter to modern progressive social ideology.
In the eyes of the progressive left Wells is a champion. But a lot of the policies that he advocates for are a bridge too far for parents and are one step away from the overt sexualization of the school curriculum.
Wells also posted a modified ISIS cartoon in 2016 showing Christians executing an LGBTQ+ person where the Christian is the nazi in the silhouette and the LGBTQ+ person is the Jewish person in the silhouette.
This senate appointment is anything but independent and was seemingly done with the intent of countering the Smith government in Alberta.
The other Alberta appointment was Daryl Fridhandler who is a lawyer from Calgary who has served on boards including those of ENMAX and has also served as Chair of the Alberta Ballet, Calgary Economic Development, and Arts Commons.
But he is nothing but a partisan Liberal in that he in the past served as campaign co-chairs for Paul Martin and Michael Ignatieff.
The 2023 election last year saw the Alberta Liberals get 0.24% of the popular vote and Trudeau holds 2 seats in the province federally. Does it make sense to be appointing Liberals and LGBTQ activists as Alberta’s senate appointments?
Premier Danielle Smith was quick to react saying, “Albertans interests have once again been blatantly disregarded by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Despite our province's repeated democratic election of senators-in-waiting ready to represent Albertans’ interests, he has chosen to appoint left wing partisans who will do whatever he and the Liberals order them to.”
These aren’t the only Senate appointments causing concern. 2 weeks ago Trudeau appointed Tracy Muggli to the Senate.
She is a health-care executive out of Saskatoon and has worked on boards of numerous organizations in the health and social services sector.
Again we see another partisan Liberal appointed to the Senate.
Muggli ran unsuccessfully for the Liberals in 2015 and 2019 and has been a long time donor to the party.
The other appointment for Manitoba was broadcaster Charles Adler.
Adler became known across Canada at the time with a voice for the everyday Canadian and leaned conservative in his commentary.
As of recent years though he changed his tune first taking issue with the federal Conservatives in 2015 when they suggested a cultural values test and barbaric cultural practices snitch line as it was called.
He also took issue at numerous points with Jason Kenney’s UCP government and his perceived hostility of it and Kenney himself towards LGBTQ+ people.
This about face shows exactly why Trudeau appointed Adler. We’ve detailed Adler’s policy shifts in our supplementals which you can find at westerncontext.ca
It goes to show that if you brand yourself as a conservative, repent, and change your stance you will be rewarded in Justin Trudeau’s Canada.
Interestingly with the Adler appointment as well the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs have called Adler’s appointment “grossly offensive” due to comments Adler himself made about Indigenous people 25+ years ago.
Should Adler be cancelled? We’ll leave that to the audience but it’s alleged that Adler called Indigenous leaders “uncivilized boneheads” and “intellectually moribund.”
But in this case perhaps it’s the senate that’s intellectually moribund.
This raises the question: what do we do with the Senate?
Premier Smith and others have called for Senate reform. Senate reform has long been a policy of western Canadian conservatism.
Those making the greatest case at this point for Senate abolition are Justin Trudeau and the Senate itself.
The Senate cannot be reformed or abolished without an opening of the Constitution. Something itself that would open a can of worms.
We have long stated here at Western Context that opening the Constitution provides an opportunity to make many changes to Canada that would make it a greater country.
Abolishing or reforming the senate is one thing. But also others such as getting Quebec onboard, tweaking equalization and other aspects, revamping the Charter of Rights and Freedoms to better grant Freedoms to individuals and limit what the government can do, and give Indigenous Canadians a meaningful seat at the table and repeal the Indian act.
Given everything we’ve seen under this government and these recent appointments it’s time for a bold courageous party to take the step forward and propose a plebiscite on senate reform or abolishment among other things.
The Senate in the past has been largely dysfunctional; now it is becoming again a partisan vessel that Trudeau appears to be stacking before he leaves.
One Prime Minister in the past, Stephen Harper, had an option to do this, he did not. The differences in not pursuing this action vs. pursuing it speak volumes about the government Canadians have had over the last 9 years.
Supplementals:

Liberal staffers pull support for party in Montreal byelection, citing government's stance on Gaza

The upcoming by-elections in Montreal and Winnipeg on September 16th are coming up closer, and may give us a more clear picture of how Canadians are feeling politically after a tough few years economically. The Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun has been solidly Liberal and the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona has been solidly NDP, for the most part, but the way things have been going, votes may be shifting in a large way.
June's surprising Conservative by-election win in Toronto-St. Pauls, a riding that had been Liberal for the previous 30 years, shows that any seat in Canada could be up for grabs, even former safe Liberal and NDP seats, and it shows that the Conservatives are continuing to build momentum through the summer, even when people normally turn their brain off of politics.
We've recently talked about the Elmwood—Transcona by-election, with the NDP expecting a tough competition from the Conservatives.
The Quebec byelection may actually be even more interesting, as Montreal is one of the few Liberal friendly areas left in the country. Ontario Liberal MPs were reportedly dismayed that even this safe Liberal riding on the island of Montreal was at risk when their party should be in a position to win it easily. Former Justice Minister Lametti won the riding three consecutive times with convincing double-digit margins since 2015, before resigning to go back into law, after a cabinet shuffle and no doubt more things going on behind the scenes. Former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin was previously the MP for the riding between 1988 and 2006, giving it greater symbolic significance for the party.
Since its creation in mid-1960s, this Montreal riding has been rejigged and renamed as part of the redistribution process, but with the exception of two elections—1984 and 2011—has stayed with the Liberals.
In a recent presentation on election readiness at the Ontario Liberal caucus retreat, Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada (Hochelaga, Que.), co-chair of the national Liberal campaign, described the Sept. 16 byelection as “a three-way race” among the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois. MPs who attended the retreat said that her body language suggested she was not “super optimistic” about winning this byelection. A second MP perceived this as the Liberal leadership trying to manage expectations in case the party loses this byelection. They noted that, prior to the June 24 byelection in Toronto, senior Liberals were confident and had assured the caucus of a victory.
Liberals have appointed Montreal City councillor Laura Palestini as their candidate, a decision that has sparked concern within the riding and among Quebec MPs who say the party should have opted for a proper nomination contest. Potential candidates who had been actively campaigning for the nomination have publicly voiced their disappointment, feeling frustrated that their weeks of effort were overshadowed by the party’s choice to appoint a candidate without a nomination election.
Complicating matters for the Liberals' election machine is a revolt by ministerial staffers, mostly of Arab and Muslim origin, over the Trudeau government's handling of the war in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict generally. Fifty-two Arab and Muslim staffers working in the Liberal government signed a letter addressed to "the leader of the Liberal Party" that says they will not participate in the byelection campaign to hold on to Lasalle–Émard–Verdun.
Referring to "the increasing push for Liberal staff members to phone bank and door knock," the letter warns that "while many of us started our political careers in elections as volunteers, we can no longer in good conscience campaign for a party that excludes us and our values."
Staffers are not acting alone. They have also asked for and received the support of a group of influential Arab and Muslim donors to the Liberal Party known as the Network 100-GTA, London, Ottawa, Montreal.
Back in November, the Network announced it was pulling out of the Liberal Party's top donor ranks over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's disinclination at the time to call for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In their letter, staffers indicate they will not participate in activities as party members until the government changes its diplomatic posture to "join our allies in explicitly condemning Israel for its numerous war crimes and for the genocidal rhetoric from members of the Israeli Cabinet."
They also demand that Canada "join our allies, including Norway, Spain, and Ireland in recognizing the state of Palestine," and "acknowledge anti-Palestinian racism as a unique form of hate and work to address it in Canada."
The Liberal Party's decision to withdraw from the Capital Pride march in Ottawa after organizers released a pro-Palestinian statement on Aug. 6 was one of the factors that triggered the staffers' decision, the letter said.
That statement had committed the Capital Pride organization to "recognizing the ongoing genocide against Palestinians in opening remarks" at Pride events. It also condemned "in the strongest possible terms the acts of terrorism" and "atrocities committed against civilians" on Oct. 7, 2023, by Hamas.
The move by the Liberal staffers comes as the NDP attempts to make inroads with Muslim communities in Lasalle–Émard–Verdun.
Last Thursday afternoon, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his local candidate Craig Sauvé visited a mosque, Masjid Verdun.
The NDP invited local leaders from across the Montreal area, as well as the president of the National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM), one of the larger advocacy groups representing Muslims in Canada. The NDP and the NCCM declined to do interviews following that meeting, but one of the invited guests, Imam Hassan Guillet did comment on the NDP, himself a former Liberal candidate before the party revoked his candidacy in response to claims by the Jewish advocacy group B'nai Brith that he had praised a Hamas-aligned activist.
Guillet said: "We are interested in listening to everybody and hearing what the party has to offer. Parties try to seduce voters, try to convince voters that they are going to work for their concerns. And we understand that."
The mosque visit came just a day after Trudeau tried holding a meeting with Muslim community members at a reception hall in Laval, Que., just north of Montreal, but cancelled that appearance after many members declined to show up and pro-Palestinian demonstrators held a protest at its doors instead.
For those who have watched as Trudeau divided and pitted parts of the country against each other over the past decade, to see some of those decisions come home to roost within his own Liberal party, it's a bit of schadenfreude. The fact that even his own MPs think that they can't even hold onto the safest of seats really shows what everyone thinks about his government now.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

Trudeau announces reduction in temporary foreign workers, suggests more immigration changes to come

This week the Trudeau government announced that the number of temporary foreign workers in Canada will decrease.
This is the same government that a year ago told us that there were racist undertones in suggesting that too many people of one variety of another were coming to the country.
Trudeau also said that there will be more immigration changes on the way, specifically to the number of permanent residents that come to Canada.
Looking at the changes in particular, employers will no longer be allowed to hire more than 10% of their total workforce through the TFW program.
Low-wage TFWs will be limited to 1-year contracts down from 2.
And with this areas that see an unemployment rate of greater than 6% won’t be able to use the program.
It is expected that these changes will reduce the number of low wage TFWs by about 65,000 returning them to pre-pandemic levels.
Over the last 6 years the number of TFWs has increased rapidly.
Who has this hurt?
Newcomer unemployment rate is at about 11.6% which is well above the national 6.4%.
Meanwhile youth unemployment is at 13.5% which is again the highest it has been in a decade.
TFWs specifically in food service take the jobs of those youths looking for employment.
The food services sector is by far the largest user of the TFW program but construction and hospitals are also quite extensive users of the TFW program.
The TFW program has been with Canada for decades and saw extensive use in the early part of this century when we saw a major energy boom.
As a result of this boom and subsequent reliance on TFWs that made their way to Tim Horton’s and other places the Conservative government of Stephen Harper under Immigration Minister Jason Kenney made decisions to lower the amount of TFWs in Canada.
Prior to 2013 the number of low wage stream TFWs was as high as 70,000+ admitted per year. After the changes these lowered to just under 15,000.
The changes were working and were criticized by many in the business community but were the right move for the economy.
Jason Kenney still believes this, commenting on X he wrote, “if there are real labour shortages, then the market response must be for employers to offer higher wages, better benefits, more training, accommodations for underemployed cohorts of the labour force, and more investment to enhance productivity.”
Then in December 2016 the Trudeau Liberal government made changes to the temporary foreign worker program.
It was with these changes that removed the then called “four-in, four-out” rule that effectively removed the temporary aspect of the temporary foreign worker program.
The Conservatives at the time highlighted what was to come but were at times branded as racists by the media.
Fast forwarding to the pandemic we see a huge increase in agriculture and low-wage positions approved by the temporary foreign worker program stream.
There are of course those who say we need these people for our economy because no one wants to do these jobs.
But as then Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said, it falls to employers to offer higher wages, better benefits, more training, and more accommodation for the unemployed cohorts of the labour force.”
Comparing Canada to the US we see cases where south-western states see an influx of illegal immigrants from Mexico, central America, and south America. These people work in the US and policies in certain states has got to a point where they are allowed to work and generally allowed to stay and be part of the community unless they cause issues.
Similarly we see a labour class in Europe where people from eastern Europe will migrate west to take low-wage positions and seek out a better life.
Most countries in the G7 or maybe even OECD see a labour class. That labour class has expanded over the years gradually lowering the price of labour for introductory level positions.
This makes it so that it is very difficult to get a job in our own country unless it is something specialized or highly skilled.
Couple this with issues preventing our economies from growing families and growing our own population you begin to see the maladies of modern industrialized economies.
This is an issue that exists in every developed country and needs to be dealt with for both economic reasons and population growth.
It is also thought that we are headed to a discussion on immigration in the next election when it arises.
What was a fringe opinion last year of lowering the number of TFWs and lowering the number of permanent residents has become a main talking point.
We don’t know what the new permanent resident numbers will be but they have already caused some to protest.
Also protesting immigration changes are the fourth major stream of migrants to Canada outside of permanent residents, TFWs, and refugees: international students.
It is thought that upwards of 70,000 international student graduates could face deportation due to these changes. Most of these students hoped to use their education as a jumping off point to stay in Canada.
They have begun protesting and combined with Prince Edward Island of all places outlining a new provincial policy that sees a 25% reduction in permanent residency nominations.
Western Context has long been discussing immigration from all streams and have been providing context to make it a mainstream discussion point.
It appears we are headed in that direction with both the Liberals and Conservatives eager to make immigration changes.
The only question left is how bold will these changes be and are they going to be enough?
Supplementals:

Quote of the Week

“I don’t know what metaphor to use here, whether it’s a bandwagon or whether it’s a snowball rolling downhill or what it is, but he jumped on it. John’s got a very successful, emerging, boisterous brand – the Conservative brand – without having to really do anything.” - Former BC Liberal cabinet minister Bill Bennett on the groundswell of support for the BC Conservatives

Word of the Week

Moribund - in terminal decline; lacking vitality or vigor, at the point of death

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Show Data

Episode Title: United No Longer
Teaser: Kevin Falcon suspends BC United’s election campaign, Trudeau appoints more partisan Liberals to the Senate, and Liberal staffers pull support from the byelection campaigns. Also, Trudeau announces a reduction in temporary foreign workers.
Recorded Date: August 31, 2024
Release Date: September 1, 2024
Duration: 1:02:44
Edit Notes: Pause near WOTW

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX