The News Rundown

Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result

On Monday, the nation watched as a by-election in Toronto took place in the riding of outgoing Trudeau cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett. Toronto-St. Paul's is a riding that has gone Liberal since Jean Chretien's huge majority of 1993, and Bennett had held the riding herself since 1997, even through the party's past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.
Before Monday's vote, a Conservative candidate hadn't been competitive in Toronto–St. Paul's since the 1980s. The party also hadn't won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election which saw Stephen Harper win a majority government.
In the lead up, it was expected that while the vote would be closer than normal, most people predicted that the Liberals would still hang on, even though Bennett won by 24% over the Conservatives in 2021. So it was shocking to find that the nail-bitingly close vote between Liberal candidate Leslie Church and Conservative candidate Don Stewart had actually resulted in Stewart winning by 2%.
If that same sort of vote swing was applied to other ridings in the province, dozens of Liberal MPs could lose their seats at the next election. Roughly 55 Liberal MPs won their Ontario ridings by a smaller margin than what Bennett won in the last general election.
Church vowed to try again in the general election, which is expected next year as long as the Liberal's confidence-and supply-agreement with the NDP holds.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, urged the prime minister to call an early election in a social media post Tuesday morning: "Congratulations to Common Sense Conservative candidate [Don Stewart], on a shocking upset in Toronto-St. Paul’s, where people voted to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime. Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax election now."
The Liberal Party deployed heavy hitters like deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and a dozen other cabinet ministers to the riding to shore up Church's support but, in the end, it clearly didn't work. Perhaps it even detracted from Church's efforts.
Jenni Byrne, a senior adviser to Poilievre, had said the party was expecting a loss in the riding. Speaking from Stewart's election night party before any results were released, Byrne said Toronto–St. Paul's "will probably stay on the Liberal side of things." But she said the Conservatives are "going to see we've done better than we have in the past."
The NDP candidate, Amrit Parhar, struggled to make much of a mark with about 11 per cent of the vote in Toronto–St. Paul's — a worse performance than what the party achieved in the last general election. The NDP could have been a contender in this race — the party currently holds the seat provincially. NDP MPP Jill Andrew has won the riding in the last two provincial elections.
The vote for the NDP also suggests that people have tied Jagmeet Singh's NDP to the Trudeau Liberals, and that a vote for one is a vote for the other.
Voters in the riding said throughout the campaign that the government's handling of the housing crisis, inflation and the Israel-Hamas conflict were sore spots. But it wasn't just about the issues — a number of voters expressed a desire for change and fatigue with Trudeau.
Even past and present Liberal supporters have now said Trudeau should resign as leader. However, Trudeau has given no indication he's stepping down. In fact, he's repeatedly said he will lead the party into the federal election that's expected sometime next year.
Nevertheless, Trudeau and Freeland failed at characterizing the by-election as a choice between their team that deals with facts, and "Canadians working together" and the Conservatives that present an "alternative [that] is really cold and cruel and small", in Freeland's own words.
Liberal backbencher Wayne Long has sent an email to caucus calling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign as leader after the party lost a Toronto-area riding that's been solidly Liberal for decades earlier this week.
The New Brunswick MP, who is not running in the next election, is the first Liberal caucus member to openly call for Trudeau's resignation since Tuesday's byelection upset in Toronto-St. Paul's. He said: "For the future of our party and for the good of our country, we need new leadership and a new direction. The voters have spoken loud and clear they want change. I agree."
It's clear that Trudeau faces far more questions about his leadership than before this week. It also shows that people are waking up to what his government has done and is doing for the country. We'll have to see if he changes his mind or if he will be stubbornly keeping his course.
Supplementals:

Last Saturday as we were getting ready to record Western Context the results of the Alberta NDP leadership race became known.
Nenshi won with 86% of the vote on the first ballot or 62,746 votes.
Kathleen Ganley came in second with 5,899 votes, Sarah Hoffman came in third with 3,063 votes, and Jodi Calihoo Stonehouse came in fourth with 1,222 votes.
A grand total of 72,930 votes was cast and by comparison the 2022 UCP leadership race saw 78,903 votes cast.
Through the combination of Ganley, Hoffman, and Stonehouse the traditional NDP base received just over 10,000 votes.
The Alberta NDP as we knew it is dead. If Nenshi had not entered the race it is very likely that the NDP numbers would not have grown and the party would have languished.
One of Nenshi’s key ideas during the campaign was the idea of moving the Alberta NDP away from the federal brand. Nenshi has said this will begin with a discussion amongst caucus and then move to the party membership.
This move would allow the party to set its own policy and not be as easily tied to the federal NDP and Jagmeet Singh.
Many people don’t believe it but the federal NDP constitution says that the provincial NDP parties are branches of the federal organization.
This and a move to the centre could be one way for the NDP to grow their numbers in Alberta. This is the voter space that the old Progressive Conservatives used to occupy.
Will Nenshi go there? Does the NDP stand to occupy the same space the old Progressive Conservatives used to? To understand that we need to look at Nenshi’s past.
In the early years Nenshi worked at McKinsey & Company. McKinsey is a company that you may have heard about before on the podcast because they made upwards of 97 contracts with the federal government between 2011 and 2023.
McKinsey also was involved in advising drug makers such as Purdue Pharmaceutical and faced lawsuits and paid a $78m settlement over claims that McKinsey helped fuel the opioid crisis.
Now Nenshi himself wasn’t involved in these deals but it gives an idea of the kind of politician Nenshi is.
Nenshi also worked with Alberta known Stephen Carter who produced Allison Redford as PC leader. Carter himself is known for using dubious tactics at times but what political group doesn’t?
As mayor of Calgary Nenshi of course oversaw the 2013 southern Alberta floods and oversaw a period of property tax increases.
In April 2020 Nenshi publicly shamed then Ward 11 councillor Jeremy Farkas for advocating a property tax freeze.
Mayoral policies can’t be the only indicator in the way someone will go. Just as with Edmonton mayor Amarjeet Sohi we don’t use everything he did as a Liberal cabinet minister to determine how he would act as mayor.
That leads us to the policy of today.
In his platform outside of breaking away from the federal NDP he mentioned his support of $10/day daycare, stopping coal mining on the rockies eastern slopes, “reversing Danielle Smith’s and the UCP’s policies that target 2SLGBTQ+ youth and their families”, and cancelling “the UCP’s expensive experiment with a provincial police service and properly funding the RCMP”.
Nenshi’s laundry list of policies includes everything that the stereotypical anti-Smith voter would list as something they don’t like or are scared of.
He doesn’t include answers to questions about how he would work with the Trudeau government, what his exact environmental policies would be, and what the fiscal house of the Nenshi NDP would look like - an important one since Alberta just this week posted its third consecutive balanced budget with billions going to debt repayment.
What we did learn this week in one of Nenshi’s first media availabilities is that he is seemingly for the consumer carbon tax.
He effectively said that if a government in Ottawa is in power and there is a carbon tax, he will implement one here. And if the federal government does not implement one, he will ensure Albertans are doing what they need to be doing to meet net zero by 2050.
We also know this week that Nenshi would take the federal dental plan put forward by the Trudeau government at face value and implement it in Alberta.
These policies and where they land show that if anything Nenshi would be comfortable with big-L Liberal style policies for Alberta.
Albertans will be made aware of this over the next 3 years and they will have to make the choice if this is the kind of policy they want.
The UCP will also have to factor this in if they want an easy cruise to re-election in 2027.
The most difficult thing though will be breaking away from the federal NDP. Federal leader Jagmeet Singh sent his congratulations and this week Singh has already made his beliefs clear that the Alberta NDP should not break away.
This message by Singh and Nenshi’s policies this week tell us that if anything Nenshi is closer to the Trudeau-Singh government than any party leader in Alberta has been.
Will this change the mood? We’ll see. Attack ads have already gone out and as the Calgary Sun said this week, bombs away.
Supplementals:

B.C. First Nations involved in salmon farming demand apology from William Shatner, Ryan Reynolds

A coalition of B.C. First Nations involved in open-net salmon farming have called on Canadian actors William Shatner and Ryan Reynolds to apologize for a profanity-laced video criticizing the wider industry.
The video was released Thursday by the conservation group Pacific Wild, and features 93-year-old Shatner unleashing a stream of bleeped-out expletives, including an impressive number of f-bombs, all directed at salmon farms. It's a response to the federal government's recent decision to extend the facilities' licences to operate off the B.C. coast for another five years.
The government had promised to phase out the farms by next year, but Fisheries Minister Diane Lebouthillier instead outlined a transition to closed-containment salmon farm operations she said would allow aquaculture farms to renew their licences in a "responsible, realistic and achievable" way – though the industry has raised concerns that the technology necessary to do so will not be ready in time.
While Reynolds does not appear in the video, it was created by Maximum Effort, the production company and digital marketing agency he founded. The ad also features Kirk McLean, a former Vancouver Canucks goaltender who backstopped the team to the Stanley Cup Final in 1994.
On Friday, the Coalition of First Nations for Finfish Stewardship released a statement calling the video an "atrocious attack” on the dignity of members who “choose to host salmon farming” in their territorial waters.
"We have been the stewards of our lands, waters, and elements for over 10,000 years, including wild Pacific salmon, the life blood of our people. Due to the impact of colonization on wild salmon stocks, we have had to include salmon farming alongside salmon stewardship to fill the economic gap caused by the decline of wild salmon."
“Sadly, this response from people like Mr. Shatner and Mr. Reynolds is all-to-common in today’s Canada. This is a classic example of … rich, elite, removed, urban white men overriding the wishes of vulnerable Indigenous communities.”
The video from Pacific Wild, while rich with expletives, was sadly lacking in information about why fish farms are so bad. It was released as part of a campaign calling on the government to act faster to end the use of open-net pens on the B.C. coast, as officials previously promised to do by 2025 – a push supported by the First Nation Wild Salmon Alliance.According to the alliance, more than 120 other First Nations in the province support transitioning away from open-net salmon farming.
Critics have argued the farms can spread disease and lice to wild fish, though recent science indicates uncertainty over the risks. The reason why open net fish farming exists is to take advantage of ocean currents to deliver oxygen to their fish and disperse their wastes -- all at no cost to the industry. However, by dispersing the waste directly into the ocean, it can pollute areas that the fish farms are located in, if the company's practices are not up to code.
The battle for fish farms to exist has now been framed as an indigenous rights battle, as 100% of fish farms in BC are now owned by First Nations. Isaiah Robinson, Deputy Chief Councillor of the Kitasoo Xai’xais Nation and a member of the Coalition described the ban as a political decision not based on science or fact. He describes it as being “based on the appeasement of white privileged activists who fearmonger false data and build anti-fish farm narratives,”
Canada’s leading food scientist Dr. Sylvain Charlebois told SeaWestNews last week that Liberal Government’s ban on open-net salmon farming in British Columbia is incredibly dangerous to the nation’s food security, describing it as an “illogical move”.
Fish farming does support First Nations an also helps to recreate damaged salmon stocks from overfishing. Not only that, but it does help to keep fish prices down. While the federal government's decision to extend the licenses another 5 years is better than nothing, it's clear that if they want to minimize the risks that critics of fish farming say there are, there needs to be a plan in place to transition the industry into something that is more environmentally sustainable, and not just shutter the farms entirely. Otherwise we're going to have more problems on our hands.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

Sajjan instructed special forces to rescue Afghan Sikhs during fall of Kabul

Throughout the Trudeau administration the Globe and Mail has earned a reputation of publishing the Trudeau scandals while the government vigorously denies them.
This week we have a new one involving Minister of Emergency Preparedness Harjit Sajjan and his time while he was Defence Minister.
The story comes from the chaotic August 2021 withdrawal in Afghanistan that saw the Taliban take control of the country once again.
The story is that then defence minister Harjit Sajjan instructed the Canadian special forces to rescue 225 Afghan Sikhs.
Military sources have told the Globe that this took resources away from rescuing Canadian citizens and Afghans linked to Canada’s service in that country.
These Afghans linked to our military service could include people like translators and informants who put their lives on the line to better their country and help our military forces.
The actual Canadian military operation in Afghanistan in August 2021 did not consider the Afghan Sikhs an operation priority since there was no link to Canada.
Initially the Afghan Sikh’s were a side objective but not to be focused on at the cost of everything else but a day later they became a firm order according to the military officials. Leadership up the chain was reportedly “furious”.
Sajjan for his part is denying the story but as we know many of the other Trudeau administration scandals that started in the Globe were initially denied.
The Canadian special forces mission failed when the frightened Afghan Sikhs left their designated rendezvous point shortly before the Canadian soldiers would have arrived.
The Sikhs eventually did get out to India on flights that were chartered by others including the Indian government.
Following the deterioration of the situation on August 15, 2021, Canadian Special Forces including members of Joint Task Force 2 (our elite special forces) were dispatched to the country to rescue Canadian citizens, permanent residents, interpreters, and fixers who had worked for the military or had other links to Canada.
Vulnerable groups like feminists, human rights advocates, minorities, and LGBTQ folks were third on the priority list.
The evacuation was a chaotic time that saw 13 US servicemen killed, thankfully no Canadian servicemen lost their lives.
The optics of the pull out are also stark given the substantial amount of death that western countries saw in Afghanistan, including Canada who lost 159 soldiers over the span of the entire war.
The withdrawal started with the Trump administration but the Biden administration pulled the plug and pulled everyone not even leaving a security force to prevent the Taliban from taking the airport - let alone even considering an option to preserve the progress made over the years by cancelling the withdrawal.
At the end of the day politics came into it for both Biden and Trudeau - the latter of which was in the midst of the 2021 election trying to earn a majority government.
These disastrous scenes took place at the airport as the election was getting underway and one wonders if electoral politics came into it.
Sikh Canadians were seen as a key voting bloc for the Liberals in Toronto and the lower mainland of BC.
Harjit Sajjan has since defended his instructions to the armed forces and doesn’t believe that his requests hampered the ability of the forces on the ground to evacuate Canadians and priority Afghans.
Retired Major General David Fraser who led more than 2000 NATO coalition troops in southern Afghanistan said, “In a humanitarian crisis, we have a responsibility to get Canadians out first and we get Afghans out who helped us out next. Once you get all those people out, you can start to look at the rest.”
In summarizing the environment he also said, “as soon as you got outside the airport, you were not in friendly territory and I don’t mean just the Taliban. There were panicked people trying to get out of the country.”
In the end Canada was able to evacuate 3700 people from Afghanistan.
Harjit Sajjan for his part also feels that he wouldn’t be getting questions about his efforts to help Afghan Sikhs “if [he] wasn’t wearing a turban.” He said, "I can only surmise that if I did not wear a turban, no one would question whether my actions were appropriate."
The Bloc Quebécois has called for the government to investigate and General Wayne Eyre said that the government was following their legal orders at the time.
In CBC’s reporting on the matter they identify a letter written a year prior to the evacuation to then Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino by 25 MPs including Conservative, NDP, and Green members asking to create a program for Afghan Sikh and Hindu refugees.
But the reality is, yes, we are asking about it because the western withdrawal from Afghanistan was one of the biggest debacles in western military history and if our government had any part in making it worse, we need to know.
We need to know because not knowing damages the memories of the 159 Canadians and countless others who were killed in Afghanistan in what is now looking like a meaningless war.
Supplementals:

Quote of the Week

“Sadly, this response from people like Mr. Shatner and Mr. Reynolds is all-to-common in today’s Canada. This is a classic example of … rich, elite, removed, urban white men overriding the wishes of vulnerable Indigenous communities.” - the Coalition of First Nations for Finfish Stewardship’s statement on Pacific Wild’s attack ad on open net fish farms

Word of the Week

Upset - an unexpected result or situation

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Show Data

Episode Title: Nowhere is Safe

Teaser: The Conservatives win a by-election in Toronto, Naheed Nenshi is crowned Alberta NDP leader, and William Shatner swears a lot in an attack ad on fish farms. Also, Harjit Sajjan played politics with the Afghanistan evacuation.

Recorded Date: June 29, 2024

Release Date: June 30, 2024

Duration: 50:25

Edit Notes: Supported vs. Provided

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX