The News Rundown

Freeland Doctrine' could set the world on a path to a new trade cold war

Much hay has been made about how the Trudeau government has taken a climate first approach in all layers of government from budgeting to foreign policy and beyond.
This even extended to the government’s failed attempt at a free trade deal with China when anyone with knowledge of how global affairs actually works would know that the free trade deal would have benefited China more so than Canada but China backed down because of our demands for climate assurances in the deal.
The government has also been ripe with vigour whenever it could oppose and show to the world that it was the foil to Donald Trump’s administration.
The government got to do this for a long time but we’re now seeing the cracks that this idealism may be ending, at least from one side of the government.
In a speech to the Brookings Institute in Washington DC, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled what amounts to a huge change in foreign policy and budgetary policy for Canada.
Freeland herself is the Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. We haven’t heard if there’s going to be a shift from Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly.
The words spoken by Freeland imply many things which will become apparent but they amount to a turnabout in policy over the last 35 years.
The policy calls for the government to stop supporting autocracies and dictatorships, specifically Russia but many other countries fall into this realm.
This also means ceasing a reliance on Russian energy and Chinese manufacturing. Canada imports a tiny amount of oil from Russia but others, mainly in Europe import far more and we could do our own bit by stopping imports from Venezuela and the Middle East, we’ll have to see if this is included in Freeland’s new doctrine.
It was also only at the beginning of the pandemic that it was decried as racist to want to decouple from China and manufacture at home, largely because that’s what President Trump was saying at the time.
Speaking to workers at a green hydrogen plant in Quebec, she said, "This change represents an economic opportunity for Canada… An opportunity which only occurs once per generation.”
Hydrogen is wonderful. Nuclear is wonderful. But if we’re to be serious about this decoupling it also means that more LNG (liquified natural gas) and oil need to be exported from Canada.
The government hasn’t enabled this.
The policy also includes an investment in tech with Nokia in Canada in what’s being called Silicon Valley North. The deal will pursue research and development with Nokia.
It was only earlier this year that the government was still being pushed to ban Huawei from our 5G infrastructure.
The new vision also includes a shift on trade tied to the American sphere of influence, saying, "If we are to tie our economies even more closely together, we must be confident that we will all follow the rules in our trade with each other, even and especially when it would be easier not to."
This means following the values of America First with Canada contributing where we can and pursuing similar values that put us ahead compared to the autocracies that were mentioned by Freeland.
This was a policy that you would never imagine coming from the Trudeau government while the former US administration was in power.
This is all very nice and well but no energy projects that would enable us to pursue this policy have been approved!
The policy also includes typical neoliberal angles as well such as a deepening and expanding of NATO.
The policy also showcases a concerted effort among democracies to mirror NATO’s discipline economically, in supply chains that run through each other’s economies.
Then the policy will need to get countries in Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean onboard to choose the right side.
Freeland is effectively promoting a form of economic nationalism supported by our NATO allies and friends.
This is a pivot from the calls of globalism that have driven trade and foreign policy for the last 35 years.
It’s an admission that with tweaks, the core ideas of the likes of Donald Trump and Brexit UK have merit.
But Freeland, Biden, and others won’t tell you this up front.
If successful it presents a huge opportunity to set forth a new global alliance but there might be a stumbling block.
Everything Freeland has laid out is completely opposite to the approach of the Trudeau government and would likely ruffle the feathers of the NDP, the Liberal’s confidence and supply agreement partner.
The other option is that this is Freeland spreading her wings and becoming an independent of Trudeau’s team and could foreshadow problems ahead just as we saw in the Chretien/Martin era.
Only time will tell.
Supplementals:

British Columbians have voted for change as new mayors and council members were elected across the province on Saturday. Housing, affordability, public safety and climate change all influenced the way voters cast their ballots this year, with B.C. facing inflation costs, a housing crisis and increasing rates of crime.
In some large municipalities, such as Kamloops, Victoria, Prince George and Abbotsford, incumbents chose not to run. But in other cities, including the province's two biggest, incumbents running for re-election lost their jobs to candidates making big claims and running on campaigns of change.
Whether or not they can make good on those promises will be determined over the next four years — and it's safe to say residents will be watching closely to ensure the people they support are keeping their word.
In Vancouver, a completely new turnover of mayor and council occurred, as Ken Sim defeated incumbent mayor, former NDP MP Kennedy Stewart in a rematch of the 2018 election which saw Stewart win by only 957 votes. This time, Sim won by 85.7k votes to Stewart's 49.6k votes. In a clear appetite for change, Sim's entire slate of ABC Vancouver (which stands for A Better City), was also elected to council as well, with no Stewart ally winning.
Ken Sim will be the first Chinese Canadian mayor of Vancouver, where more than 28% of the population has Chinese ethnic origins, according to the 2016 census.
Tackling public safety and housing as his biggest priority, Sim has promised to hire 100 police officers and 100 mental health nurses to tackle crime in B.C.'s largest city. He has also promised to accelerate permitting, in order to address a lack of housing. He also promises to double the number of co-op housing units and has been supportive of plans to increase density, particularly around transit stations.
In his victory speech, Sim paid tribute to Chinese Canadian trailblazers who preceded him, as well as his parents, who he said immigrated from Hong Kong to Canada in 1967 with only $3,200, in the hope of providing their children a better education and future. Sim was born and raised in Vancouver.
Just to the east, a battle over transit and a municipal police force saw Brenda Locke elected mayor in Surrey, beating incumbent Doug McCallum by just 973 votes. The mayoral race in Surrey was dominated by promises on transit and public infrastructure, as well as the city's ongoing transition from RCMP to a municipal police force, which Locke promised to reverse if elected. The city began its transition to the Surrey Police Service in 2018, when council, including Locke, unanimously approved a motion to replace the RCMP.
The Surrey Police Union has raised concerns about cost estimates for halting the transition, and say Surrey police officers might not be interested in working for the RCMP. Former B.C. attorney general Wally Oppal, who was chair of the Surrey police transition task force, says going back would be a complicated process; before the transition could be reversed, approval would be needed from the solicitor general.
In Victoria, when two-term Victoria mayor Lisa Helps announced she would not run for the job again this year, eight people, including sitting councillors Stephen Andrew and Marianne Alto, put their names in the hat to replace her. Alto, a businesswoman with a background in law and science, won, with 56 per cent of the votes cast.
A key issue in the race was how candidates would vote on a controversial plan to rezone all single-family properties to allow for multi-family add-ons, something the next set of city leaders will decide early in their term.
Much of Victoria council was replaced as well. Only one incumbent councillor decided to run for council again, controversial far leftist Ben Isitt, who has made headlines, and into our shows for his war on Christmas decorations, Remembrance Day, his grifting on paid council lunches, email privacy breaches, and his lunacy while protesting at Fairy Creek, among many other things. Thankfully, Isitt, who had served in council since 2011, was finally defeated.
Saanich will also be among the municipalities with a new mayor as well, Dean Murdock, after he narrowly beat one term incumbent Fred Haynes. The council remains largely the same, and the priorities will remain much as they were before.
The real changeup on the island was in Langford, one of the largest growing municipalities in the country, as 29 year mayor Stew Young lost to political newcomer Scott Goodmanson. His entire slate of 5 Langford Now candidates were also elected, and this signifies a huge change for how that part of Greater Victoria may go forward.
Lillian Szpak (3,512), who ran as an independent, was the only incumbent to keep her seat. Szpak said she looks forward to working with the new councillors and acting as a mentor for them. Szpak said of Young that: “He was one of the authors of the change of the community. I think the result tonight – what you see is a result of having lost touch with that change. I think that’s why we have such an upset in Langford.”
It's also a time for change in BC provincially, as David Eby will become the next Premier of BC and leader of the BC NDP as his only other challenger, Anjali Appadurai, was disqualified from the leadership race.
Appadurai, a former federal NDP candidate, was disqualified late Wednesday after a report by B.C. NDP chief electoral officer Elizabeth Cull found she "engaged in serious improper conduct'' by working with third parties, including the environmental group Dogwood B.C., for membership drives on her behalf. Appadurai and Dogwood deny any rules were broken.
Eby said he will be listening to the new party members who signed up to support her because of her strong stance on environmental issues: "There are a bunch of people out there who are disappointed with how this leadership campaign went. Some may feel they don't have a place in our party. That isn't true. And I hope they'll stick around. Right now my priority is reaching out to those members … to recognize the work she did in engaging them on a really important issue, an issue of priority to me, our province and government, and to let them know that I will be a leader for all members of the NDP and that climate change is an important issue for everyone in our province."
Eby, who is 46, was first elected to the B.C. Legislature in 2013 when he defeated Premier Christy Clark in the riding of Vancouver-Point Grey by just over 1,000 votes. Premier John Horgan will be retiring in December, and the date for Eby to be sworn in has not been announced.
Appadurai launched her B.C. NDP leadership campaign in August with an emphasis on tackling environmental and human rights issues in what was seen by many as a challenge to the party's status quo.
Horgan said she could have been "a welcome addition" to the party, but violating campaign rules wasn't something the party could overlook.
"Enthusiasm and vigour are welcomed in the NDP, but you have to follow the rules. This isn't how anybody wanted this [race] to roll, but I think it's a cautionary tale for all of us."
So, as we move further into the fall, as the weather has changed from the drought filled heat into a cool damp forecast, we will see change politically, as many shakeups around the province have occurred, many being quite unexpected. We'll have to see how this changes things for BC citizens moving forward.
Supplementals:

Alberta premier’s new cabinet includes familiar faces in prominent roles

The Premiership of Danielle Smith continues this week with continued controversy and media bias regarding comments on Ukraine and Russia.
Put simply the media waited until after Smith was elected to publish stories regarding content found on her Locals webpage. Locals is a Patreon equivalent that has become used by those on the right since it has a different set of terms and policies than Patreon.
The comments in question involved neutrality for Ukraine and support for allowing breakaway regions to potentially join Russia.
Smith has since apologized for these comments, calling them ill informed, condemned the invasion, and pledged to work with outreach groups within the Ukrainian community (which has its largest diaspora in Canada).
On the topic of neutrality, one of this country’s largest papers and the often called “paper of record”, The Globe and Mail published an editorial piece in January saying that neutrality had to be the way forward for Ukraine.
They went as far as citing Austria which has neutrality enshrined into its post war Constitution which said that the country would be neutral and in neither sphere of influence during the Cold War.
Editorial Boards exist to inform readers on the position of the newspaper chain.
There were also articles in late March detailing President Zelensky’s peace efforts and his willingness to discuss Ukraine adopting a neutral stance.
The point is that discussing neutrality was in vogue at the time when Danielle Smith made the comments.
Obviously as the war has continued and become more bloody and civilians have been deliberately targeted by Russia, the prospect of neutrality should not be entertained by western leaders today.
But as with most things in the media, the context regarding the comments and what was being discussed in the global press at the time was left out.
There remain many great questions about what should be done with Ukraine and if we are doing enough and if NATO should take a larger role in the war and what the ulterior motives of large actors like Russia and the US are.
The main story this week needs to be on the announcement of the Smith cabinet and impending UCP and NDP conventions. We’ll have coverage of these conventions next week.
The new cabinet looks a lot like the cabinet of former Premier Jason Kenney with a couple notable exceptions.
Kaycee Madu is back as a Deputy Premier and Minister of Skilled Trades and Professions.
Nathan Neudorf joins cabinet as another Deputy Premier along with being Minister of Infrastructure.
All leadership candidates except Leela Aheer who was a vocal critic of Smith are in cabinet!
Travis Toews returns as Finance Minister.
Rebecca Schulz is now Minister of Municipal Affairs.
Brian Jean is Minister of Jobs, Economy, and Northern Development.
Rajan Sawhney is Minister of Trade, Immigration, and Multiculturalism.
Todd Loewen is Minister of Forestry, Parks, and Tourism.
Former Kenney Government House Leader Jason Nixon is no longer in cabinet, also no longer in cabinet is Ric McIver, one of the last to serve in the Progressive Conservative cabinets of Jim Prentice and Allison Redford.
The biggest ministries of Justice, Health, and Education will be headed up by their former Ministers in Jason Copping, Tyler Shandro, and Adiana LaGrange respectively.
The cabinet still maintains a heavy Calgary influence with added rural influence as some were concerned Calgary’s representation would be diminished.
It breaks down as follows.
Edmonton and Area: 3
Calgary and Area: 13
Rural: 11
This cabinet should send a signal to members that an attempt at unity has been made and that the key portfolios did not change which should ensure investors and businesses that nothing too drastic will be happening in the near future.
The cabinet announcement caps off a week of speculation and further sensationalism about what may happen cabinet wise without actually waiting to see what the cabinet would look like.
At this point it is on to the party conventions and preparation for the 2023 election begins.
Supplementals:

Firing Line

Trudeau says Russian invasion of Ukraine 'accelerated' Canada's move away from oil and gas

One of the key defences for the Trudeau government's feckless response to the ever growing inflation crisis, is that Canada is not the only country facing inflation. The problem with this defence is that in the minds of the government, it absolves them of any perceived responsibility for the terrible situation that many Canadians find themselves in these days as a result of failed government policies, just because other countries find themselves in the same boat.
The horrifying thing is that Trudeau actually believes that what he's doing is right, and that the path his government is charting will actually solve the inflation issues that his government has actually created. As Pierre Poilievre quipped in a recent question period, "Can we really trust the arsonists who lit the fire to put it out?"
In a time of inflation, with high oil prices and low unemployment, the government is still running deficits. At a time where investments in natural resources would have paid dividends when global demand for Canadian energy has never been higher, the government has sat by and claimed the opposite.
With the Ukraine war having helped to drive Canadian fuel prices to historic highs, Trudeau said that the conflict was helping to “accelerate” this country’s shift to renewable energy. While Trudeau acknowledged that the Russian invasion had caused global demand to surge for Canadian sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, he predicted that the net effect would be a faster phase-out of the Canadian oil and gas sector.
While speaking at an event by the Canadian Climate Institute, Trudeau said: “Right now in the coming couple of years, we’re going to need to continue with the mechanisms we have, but the move off of fossil fuels … is going to happen much faster because of Russia.”
Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine spurred an avalanche of international sanctions that had the effect of cutting off most sources of Russian oil and gas from Western markets. Countries such as Canada and the United States even banned imports of Russian energy outright — although neither country had ever imported significant shares of Russian petroleum.
As Europe (especially Germany) has scrambled to find alternative sources of energy, the Trudeau government has promised a moderate increase in Canada’s production of oil and gas — but a decided lack of export infrastructure has sharply limited what can be sent overseas.
In March, Natural Resource Minister Jonathan Wilkinson promised that Canada would produce an extra 300,000 barrels per day of fossil fuels to plug European supply shortages. However, with Canada having no East Coast ports equipped to export either oil or natural gas, all of these exports will have to be done via the United States.
Trudeau has previously said that is unlikely to change, in keeping with his government’s general strategy of discouraging any new oil and gas projects that will have the net effect of raising national emissions. In August, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz even visited Canada on an explicit mission to call for increased exports of Canadian natural gas. In response, Trudeau told the Germans there was no “business case” for Canada to sell LNG to Europe, and instead took Scholz to a part of rural Newfoundland that may eventually host a plant that will produce hydrogen from offshore wind.
In case you're thinking that demand for oil is actually causing a move away from oil sounds like doublespeak, and exactly the opposite of what a basic economics textbook says, then you'd be right. When foreign leaders come to our country to ask for help with our resources, not having the capacity to take advantage of the demand is a massive wasted economic opportunity, at a time when the country could really use it.
Instead, Trudeau is saying that Canada must remain “fiscally responsible” in responding to tough economic times as forecasts of a recession grow louder. I know what you're thinking, remaining fiscally responsible, from a government that gave us hundreds of billions of dollars in deficits to account for over a trillion dollars in total debt, all in the guise of protecting Canadians from an 'unprecedented pandemic'. Now it's found that about 200 billion of the 500 billion of debt in the last 2 years had nothing to do with spending towards the pandemic.
So for a government to say that they're remaining 'fiscally responsible' amidst their horrible economic record just shows how clueless they are in running Canada's economy.
Trudeau said that while the Liberals are trying to get inflation-relief measures out the door, those supports are “targeted.” He said: “We know that we need to help people who need help without putting at risk our fiscal stability or contributing further to inflation. That’s why remaining fiscally responsible and measured in our response is essential because we have to prepare for whatever might come in the coming weeks and months.”
Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, have warned this week that Canada and the world are heading toward a recession in the coming months due to several global factors. But for those hoping that the famous Liberal ally would present a change to how the government would tackle the inevitable recession, he has still backed the Liberal government’s current version of “fiscal discipline” in tackling high inflation.
On Wednesday, Statistics Canada reported that food prices continued to soar across the country in September, even as the annual rate of inflation cooled to just 6.9 per cent. Prices on food purchased from the grocery store continued to soar, rising 11.4 per cent to a new 41-year high. Last month, shoppers paid more for meat (7.6 per cent), dairy (9.7 per cent), bakery goods (14.8 per cent) and fresh vegetables (11.8 per cent), according to StatsCan.
Canada just got out of the dark times of the past few years, and now it seems we are headed for a new, different set of dark times in the next few years. All because our prime minister thinks he's being fiscally responsible and that the world doesn't want Canadian resources.
Supplementals:

Quote of the Week

“Right now in the coming couple of years, we’re going to need to continue with the mechanisms we have, but the move off of fossil fuels … is going to happen much faster because of Russia.” - Prime Minister Trudeau, on the failure to understand supply and demand.

Word of the Week

Turnover - the number of persons hired within a period to replace those leaving or dropped from a workforce

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Show Data

Episode Title: Words and Actions

Teaser: A new economic doctrine emerges from Chrystia Freeland, new changes abound in the BC municipal elections, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith names her new cabinet. Also, Trudeau asserts that demand for Canadian oil will decrease reliance on it.

Recorded Date: October 22, 2022

Release Date: October 23, 2022

Duration: 59:19

Edit Notes: UCP end

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX