The News Rundown
- Queen Elizabeth II has passed away this past week, and Canadians under the age of 70 will have a new monarch for the first time in their lives. For many, Elizabeth was such an ever-present reality that it's hard to imagine something different. There are many monarchists in Canada, devout to the idea of Canada remaining under the British Monarchy, and there are also many who believe that we should cast off the monarchy and go it alone under a republic, much like the United States.
- However, it should be said that Canada is not the US, and that the Queen had great fondness for Canada. When Queen Elizabeth began her last visit to Canada, she talked of coming "home." After she arrived in Halifax in 2010, she said: "Canadians have, by their own endeavours, built a country and society which is widely admired across the world. I am fortunate to have been a witness to many of the developments and accomplishments of modern Canada. As Queen of Canada for nearly six decades, my pride in this country remains undimmed. Thank you again for your welcome. It is very good to be home."
- That remark 12 years ago was hardly the only time Elizabeth offered such a view of Canada. Gov. Gen. Mary Simon said: "Her Majesty cared about people, about our well-being. This was clear every time we spoke. She cared about Canada, and all the unique stories that make up our beautiful country. She learned our stories as she visited every corner of Canada during her many royal tours. She called Canada her 'second home.'"
- Several hallmarks of Elizabeth's 70-year reign — her devotion to duty and her role — are well-known, but what she really thought when it came to matters of state and politics was not. Yet from her earliest visit to Canada — in 1951, as Princess Elizabeth, before she became Queen — she offered comments on the impressions she had of the country. After returning to the United Kingdom, following the trip she had made on behalf of her ailing father, King George VI, she offered these words: "I am sure that nowhere under the sun could one find a land more full of hope, of happiness and of fine, loyal, generous-hearted people. They have placed in our hearts a love for their country and its people which will never grow cold and which will always draw us to their shores."
- After the death of Queen Elizabeth II on Thursday, a period of mourning has begun in Canada and preparations are underway for a commemoration ceremony in Ottawa. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Thursday the “coming days will be a period of mourning for Canadians, as it will be for all Commonwealth citizens.”
- As we take our time to reflect on what the Queen has done for Canada, it is vital to realize the importance of our constitutional monarchy and how the systems in place involving the governor general actually benefit Canadian democracy. The governor general is not normally needed, but in a time of crisis, the system is there to protect Canadians from threats to our democracy and political system. So while we look ahead towards the future reign of King Charles III and get used to saying that, it's good to remind ourselves of why Canada has a monarch in the first place.
- Ballots have been mailed out and UCP members can start the process of selecting the next leader of the party, and more importantly this time, the next Premier.
- An unexpected coalition has emerged between leadership candidates Leela Aheer, Brian Jean, Rajan Sawhney, and Travis Toews.
- The candidates spoke out against Danielle Smith’s Alberta Sovereignty Act. They said “the act is a false bill of goods.”
- In the event that Smith should win, the four candidates said they would not support the legislation when voted on, and that’s fine, because Smith said that the legislation would be enacted by free vote.
- There’s also the belief that the current draft of the legislation would not have enough votes to pass the legislature which could complicate things if the Bill was deemed a confidence matter.
- Discussion of the Sovereignty Act has dominated the leadership race but no one has actually explained what it is and how it would work.
- The Alberta Sovereignty Act would affirm the authority of the Provincial Legislature to refuse provincial enforcement of specific Federal laws or policies that violate the jurisdictional rights of Alberta under Sections 92 - 95 of the Constitution or that breaches the Charter Rights of Albertans.
- Section 92 covers Exclusive Powers of Provincial Legislatures.
- Section 92A covers Non-Renewable Natural Resources, Forestry Resources and Electrical Energy
- Section 93 covers Education
- Section 94 covers Uniformity of Laws in Ontario, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick
- Section 94A covers Old Age Pensions
- Section 95 covers Agriculture and Immigration
- The Sovereignty Act does nothing to deal with separation of Alberta from Canada.
- If passed, when the Federal Government institutes a law or policy that appears to violate Alberta’s jurisdictional rights under the Canadian Constitution or Albertans’ Charter rights, the Government of Alberta may introduce a Special Motion for a free vote of all MLAs in the Legislature.
- The special motion would need to have:
- Identification of the Federal law or policy that is deemed to be in violation of the Constitution or Charter, and the constitutional explanation for making that claim.
- Explanation of the harms that the specified violation of the Constitution or Charter imposes on the citizens of Alberta
- A Declaration that by authority of the Alberta Sovereignty Act, and notwithstanding the specific Federal law or policy in question, it shall not be enforced by the Provincial Government within Alberta in the manner outlined by the Special Motion
- Imposition of a date to review and debate, in the Legislature, whether or not to amend, end or continue the actions outlined in the Special Motion. This review date shall be no later than the earlier of 24 months or within 90 days of a Court staying or deeming all or a portion of a Special Motion unconstitutional.
- And the biggest misconception of all, the Premier or Government will not be able to refuse the enforcement of any federal law.
- There are risks of course with the proposed legislation when it comes to presenting an open economy for the province.
- There are risks about what this will do for political discourse within the province.
- But no one has actually laid how the Sovereignty Act would work if passed.
- From our non-lawyer opinion, the Alberta Sovereignty Act looks like an expansion of the notwithstanding clause which is centred around the Charter of Rights and Freedoms to also ensure that provincial autonomy is not stifled by the federal government.
- There has been a ton of discussion on this proposed Bill and it has single handedly shaped the race to the point where there’s even misleading stories in the media about the province being able to use the Bill to ignore court rulings.
- But what this ignores, is that in Canada, everything can be appealed and taken to higher levels of court, including to the Supreme Court of Canada.
- But in the actual explanation of how the Bill would work, it’s said that, if a Court stays or ultimately deems that the actions undertaken by the Province under a specific Alberta Sovereignty Act Special Motion is unconstitutional, then the Government and Legislature will have to review the Special Motion actions in question and make a decision as to whether or not to amend, end or continue with them, understanding the legal implications such a decision could cause.
- At the end of the day, the true story about the Sovereignty Act has not been told in the media and you can like or dislike the proposed Bill and like or dislike the coalition that has formed, but the media has not done their due diligence on this matter.
- Longtime listeners of Western Context will know that we have now covered 3 Conservative leadership races, and for anyone that has closely followed this one in particular, there is an energy surrounding the Conservative Party of Canada that has not been seen since former Prime Minister Stephen Harper's majority government win in 2011.
- For those who haven't been following the election, the vote was held under instant-runoff voting in which each electoral district is given 100 points, distributed according to the weight of a candidate's vote in that electoral district. Should no candidate receive more than 50% of the points in a round, the candidate with the lowest amount of points is removed and their points reallocated to the next highest choice on the ballots that had selected them. Voting was only open to those who are members of the Conservative Party of Canada as of June 3.
- We are recording this shortly after the Conservative Party announced the results of the leadership race, and to no one's surprise, we can now say that the formerly presumed frontrunner, Pierre Poilievre, is no longer to be presumed to be in front any longer - he is now the newly elected leader of the Conservatives, and by an overwhelming majority.
- Poilievre was declared victorious during the Conservatives’ big reveal at the Shaw Centre in Ottawa on Saturday evening after a lengthy seven-month leadership campaign that saw him be a clear frontrunner on all accounts – whether it be membership sales or fundraising.
- Poilievre swept the contest with 68.15% of the vote on the first ballot. Former Quebec premier Jean Charest, who came in second, only got 16.07%. MP Leslyn Lewis, who was third in the 2020 leadership contest for party leadership, came in third place again with 9.69%. Former Ontario MPP Roman Baber, who got kicked out of Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s caucus last year for opposing Covid-19 lockdowns, garnered 5.03%, and MP Scott Aitchison received 1.06%.
- According to Elections Canada, Poilievre also brought in the most fundraising out of all candidates. From the most up-to-date fundraising numbers compiled from the first and second interim reports, Poilievre raised $6.7M from over 58,000 contributions, Charest raised $2.7M from over 7,000, Lewis raised $1.5M from over 14,000, Baber raised $647K from almost 6,000, and Aitchison raised $549K from 2,200.
- Poilievre raised the most money in Alberta (73% of all fundraising), BC (71%), Saskatchewan (70%), Manitoba (63%), PEI (60%), Ontario (51%), New Brunswick (51%), the North (51%), Nova Scotia (43%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (49%). Charest raised the most in Quebec (74%).
- Usually, fundraising can translate to vote intentions pretty seamlessly, but Charest got outperformed in his home province of Quebec when it got down to the actual vote, as well as everywhere else in Canada. Poilievre won all but six ridings in Quebec and two in Ontario. Riding wins were 330 for Poilievre, 8 for Charest.
- For a party that has been stressing the importance of unity, the conservative members seem pretty united in who they wanted as leader, as Poilievre won by an even bigger points percentage than Stephen Harper did in 2004, and far more than was gained by former leaders Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole on their first ballots.
- It should be noted that Scheer and O'Toole won a respectable number of MPs in the general election, keeping Prime Minister Trudeau to a minority, but both ultimately failed to gain much traction outside of the party base, and were unable to form government.
- That is now the task for new leader Pierre Poilievre - to convince the rest of Canada that he should be the next Prime Minister. Poilievre took the stage under roars of applause as his victory was declared and sought out to extend thanks to his family, his team, but also his opponents in the race.
- He extended his thanks to Aitchison for “running on ideas like simplifying and lowering taxes”, Baber for fighting back against vaccine mandates and Lewis for standing up for families and freedom during the race.
- He also had kind words for Charest, who he thanked for his service to the country especially during the 1995 Quebec referendum.
- Poilievre was quick to say that “We are one party serving one country.”, and said that the government must serve the people, not the other way around.
- Poilievre’s focus quickly shifted to attacking the Liberal government, which he accused of driving up the cost of living and doubling the national debt. He talked about families downgrading their diets because of the rapidly rising cost of food, seniors delaying their retirements and watching their life savings “evaporate with inflation” but also millennials who still live at home because they cannot afford a house.
- Poilievre went on to reiterate promises made during the campaign such as increasing oil production in Canada in order to replace imports of foreign oil within five years and accelerating work credentials for immigrants so they can start working in the country.
- For those of us who had followed Poilievre's campaign, the victory speech he gave took from many different parts of his campaign videos, which have attracted a large following on social media like Youtube, Twitter, and Instagram. For others, it has provided a clear idea of what he intends to do when he becomes Prime Minister. For Liberal supporters who thought that he would be an easy opponent to beat, think again, as the energy around this campaign has been something else, and we may be seeing history in the making.
- Supplementals:
- Western Context's 2022 CPC Leadership Analysis
- The Conservative Party of Canada elected its new leader in Pierre Poilievre tonight and we’ve just run down the numbers.
- Now we’re going to have a look at some of the early media analysis and how the party wins from here.
- Media analysis around this race from the very beginning has underestimated the support that Pierre Poilievre had or completely misunderstood the sentiment conservatives were facing.
- Media pundits such as Andrew Coyne called Pierre’s campaign a campaign for “grievance hunter in chief” and said that it’s going to be hard to reach out to voters when you are, “comfortable with extremists.”
- As the numbers show, 330/338 ridings and 68% of the vote paints Canadians with a very uncomfortable brush if the prevailing view that Poilievre supporters are extremists.
- There have also been questions focused around the Poilievre’s campaign being one of red meat for the base and not resonating with voters when the election comes.
- The general media sentiment has been that the NDP/Liberal deal will hold for another 3 years but the signals that Justin Trudeau has been sending are consistent with his messaging and travel before an election happens.
- The Conservatives under Poilievre will be making a move to be ready for an election that very few people see on the horizon.
- The underestimation continued until the votes were made public in that panelists were fairly certain that Poilievre would win but were not too sure that it would be as large as the victory was.
- There was very clearly some double takes being done after the votes were revealed because a new reality began to emerge for the panelists in question.
- These double takes will highlight what emerges in the days and weeks to come as the press machine in this country builds the narrative as they see playing out over the next weeks and months.
- There is a difference this time though, from the unveiling of his campaign announcement Pierre Poilievre has managed to maintain control of the narrative in how his campaign was being covered both online and by traditional media.
- In 2022 this is the most important aspect in finding success as a political leader. No leader of the Conservative party has been able to do this as of yet.
- This leads to questions about what the potential path to victory for a Poilievre lead Conservative party looks like.
- Most of the discussion has been about growing the vote in the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver, the traditional route.
- But with today’s results nothing is off the table. There is a base to grow from in Quebec and the maritimes. The party is strong in BC and Western Canada as well. The party is strong in Ontario too.
- The path to victory looks something like this: Conservatives will pick up a handful of seats around Vancouver and likely one or two in the interior of BC.
- If trends follow from previous years, Yukon is a likely pick up along with Nunavut.
- Conservative performance across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba will be similar to past elections.
- The Conservatives will not lose seats in Ontario. There is the potential to gain the suburbs and around Toronto but this is not guaranteed.
- The more interesting story comes to the party’s potential in Quebec given the results of Pierre Poilievre winning all but 6 ridings in Quebec and the CAQ and Quebec Conservative party polling #1 and #2 in the current Quebec election. Quebec has the potential to shock us in the next election.
- In the Maritimes the party will either hold or grow their support mirror past elections where the Conservatives formed government.
- We live in a new era now when it comes to media relations and the Official Opposition and that’s why expecting a race to shake out as they have in the past is a fool’s errand.
- Expect the unexpected from the Conservative Party of Canada under Pierre Poilievre.
Quote of the Week
“We are one party serving one country.” – Pierre Poilievre on the CPC becoming a united Conservative party going forward following his leadership win.
Word of the Week
Era - a long and distinct period of history with a particular feature or characteristic
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Show Data
Episode Title: Ending One Era, Beginning Another
Teaser: We talk about what the Queen meant to Canada, UCP candidates denounce Danielle Smith’s Sovereignty Act, and Pierre Poilievre becomes the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
Recorded Date: September 10, 2022
Release Date: September 11, 2022
Duration: 46:06
Edit Notes: AB story pauses
Podcast Summary Notes
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