The News Rundown

Back in black? Alberta set to table budget reflecting 'improving fiscal situation'

Alberta has been a convenient target during the pandemic, primarily for having restrictions that were too loose.
Albertans also on the whole have also been very very skeptical of most forms of COVID restrictions and that has played a role in the divisions we’ve seen over the last 2 years.
But, now without any doubt, it’s safe to say that Alberta had the best approach to COVID out of any province and perhaps one of the best in the world.
Why you might ask?
Throughout the pandemic restrictions were lighter than other provinces.
That has led to an easier economic recovery combined with the pro-growth plan initiated by the UCP in 2019.
Last February the budget deficit was forecast at around $18.2b.
Now, University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe thinks that Alberta will see a surplus of $1-$2b in the upcoming budget.
This will be Alberta’s first surplus since 2014 and before that, we have to go back to before the 2009 financial crisis and the first Stelmach budget and Ralph Klein budgets to find surpluses.
Tombe points out that if we don’t have a surplus it will be due to the government budgeting contingencies or emergency funds.
Alberta has built its success on the energy industry and this time is no different. Albertans should be happy seeing oil prices high and natural resource royalties funding government services.
This is an important opportunity to balance the books and start planning for the future.
The UCP ran on the platform of reducing red tape and cutting spending, bringing it in line with the per-capita-average of other provinces.
This combined with a more stable revenue stream secures the fiscal future of Alberta.
The Premier has said that the province will be looking at the revenue side of the equation later this year just as they looked at the spending side of the equation through the first 3 years of the UCP mandate.
Albertans should be consulted about which way to go in surveys or even referendums.
This is important as this surplus provides the opportunity to build a firm fiscal underpinning in Alberta transitioning away from the ups and downs of natural resource revenue and begin the process of paying down the debt.
For instance, would Albertans rather have a flat rate income tax and a 2-4% sales tax? Or would they rather have no sales tax and maintain the current tax structure?
There are arguments for and against each plan and many US states go 100% in one direction or the other. There is no reason why Alberta should not consult the population on which way to go.
When the NDP came to power in 2015 they conveniently did not mention their carbon tax and announced it at a Sunday press conference out of the blue.
Should the NDP come anywhere near power in the next election, it’s safe to assume the same could happen with a sales tax or other tax changes.
The UCP has governed with a focus on jobs and the economy above all else and it shows since we’re now talking about a surplus being forecast for the next budget.
No, this isn’t due to everything Alberta did, external factors play a large role, but this is an opportunity that should not be squandered.
If the UCP tables a balanced budget with a surplus, they will have balanced the budget deficits started by the old Progressive Conservatives, carried forward by the NDP through two economic downturns, and balanced spending required for the worst global pandemic in a century.
This is an economic turnaround story that needs to be capitalized on and should not be minimized.
It represents a huge opportunity for Alberta and its citizens and everyone in the province should take note.
Supplementals:

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1489337104219787266

If you've been the the grocery store in BC recently, or even across Canada, and are wondering why the prices of your favourite dairy staple have gone through the roof recently, there are a bunch of reasons for that - and all of them have to do with government intervention in the food industry that consequently takes more money out of the wallets of the average citizen.
For those who are unaware, starting on Feb. 1, British Columbians are now charged a 10-cent deposit when they purchase milk or milk-substitute beverages. Consumers can then receive a refund by returning the containers to a recycling center.
Encorp Canada Interim CEO, John Nixon praises the move, saying that his company is "very excited" and that it will greatly increase the number of recycled containers in Canada. Of course, Encorp is probably also quite happy because it means that grocery stores will now also charge a Container Recycling Fee (CRF) that is around another 1-16c on top of the 10c deposit that you will already pay.
From Encorp's website: "The Return-It collection network is not paid for by tax dollars, nor is it funded by the government. It's paid for by all of us - consumers, retailers, beverage manufacturers and Encorp."
The BC Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, estimates another 20-40 million containers will be recycled each year now that milk containers are included in the deposit-refund system. The change is a part of the province’s CleanBC Plastic Action Plan.
Vancouver's Binners' Project, which supports more than 100 people who collect containers that have been discarded as litter or put in garbage cans but are worth money, said the additional deposit will be a boon. The Binners' Project has been advocating for milk containers to be added to B.C. 's container deposit system, saying Alberta has had a similar scheme since 2009.
Sean Miles, the director of the project, says: "People are pretty excited about it. Some have been calling for this for a long time. We do expect that this will lead to an overall income improvement for binners to their weekly or daily earnings."
In the meantime, some residents in B.C. who live in more rural locations say that it could be more onerous to reclaim their deposits than people who live closer to depots. Dave Beauchamp, who lives in Sparwood, will have to drive 30 kilometres to the nearest Return-It depot in Fernie to drop off his milk containers.
He said in an email that going green and reducing plastic pollution is a worthy goal, but if more containers are added to B.C.'s container deposit system in the future, people living in smaller centres could end up forfeiting the deposits because of the effort required to reclaim them.
The other concern is the added fuel costs of taking all the milk jugs, which take up a lot of space, to your local recycling facility. Unless you have a huge gas guzzling truck that has a lot of space, likely your vehicle can only hold about 20-30 of these jugs at a time - which leads to burning about $2-3 in gas to get to the facility to only receive $2-3 for your troubles.
The other problem is that simultaneously, there is a spike in the price of milk because of an increase in the price farmers are paid for the milk they produce. The price increase is meant to offset rising costs for dairy farmers, especially feed costs, which the commission said have gone up by as much as 30 per cent over the past two years. The commission said the price hike is also meant to give farmers a chance to recuperate some of the higher costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Jeff Doucette, general manager of Field Agent Canada, a digital marketing company based in Calgary that tracks the price of milk across Canada, said this week’s increase is the “biggest we’ve seen in one stroke” since it began reporting on milk prices in 2015: “Supermarkets are not going to eat the price increase that dairy farmers are passing along to them.” In the end, the costs are going to be passed along to consumers.
An investigation found the record-breaking price hike was pushed higher by dairy farmers who asked for steeper increases than what retail and consumer groups wanted. And while Doucette said he believes the increase given to dairy farmers this year was justified, he also said the whole pricing system, along with the regulation around dairy in Canada, is “really, really wonky.”
Doucette said: “You can buy a two-litre bottle of coke at Walmart (in Calgary) and in Mississauga and it will be the same price. But at the same two stores, there’s a $1 difference in a four-litre jug of milk.”
This is partly because farmers pass on their costs of production, Doucette said. If production costs go up, these costs are passed on to processors with the approval of the dairy commission. If production costs go down, the dairy commission would need to consider reducing the price farmers are paid. Doucette said this limits incentives for farmers to find efficiencies and cost savings.
This has also resulted in price variations across the country which vary from $4-8 for a 4L jug or bag, depending on where you are.
Ashley Chapman, vice president of Chapman’s Ice Cream, said that along with the eight per cent increase paid to farmers for drinkable milk, other milk prices have skyrocketed, including a 22 per cent increase for skim milk powder and a 53% increase for dairy whey. Both of these products are used to make ice cream.
Chapman said: “In the past 14 months, not only has every single component to make my product gone up, but everything that supports my business in a 360 degree way has gone up — whether it’s a bolt for a machine or a cleaning product.”
Trudeau's government hasn't answer any questions about the increased cost of dairy and whether it was justified given the economic strains many Canadians are facing due to rising inflation and the ongoing pandemic, but this should come as no surprise as Trudeau has been steadfast in ignoring the dangers of inflation, and indeed has been contributing to inflation through his lack of a coherent economic plan that he famously raised eyebrows during the last election when he said "I don't think about monetary policy".
Inflation is a major problem in Canada right now. Right now, governments are a part of the problem with their policies that are making life increasingly unaffordable for Canadians. This story will fly under the radar because of the media's focus on the convoys.
Supplementals:

Elections Canada: 205,000 mail-in ballots were not counted

What would you think if you knew your mail-in ballot was not counted?
New data from Elections Canada says more than 200,000 mail in ballots were not counted, in total 205,000 ballots were not counted.
The margin of victory for the Liberals nationwide was just over 190,000 votes.
But with that being said, of the 205,000 votes uncounted, 90,000 were late and not counted, another 114,000 were just never returned.
There are both good and bad takeaways from this report.
First, the 90,000 late ballots can be chalked up to people either mailing too late or Canada Post suffering delays.
The report says that the shorter campaign period could have contributed to this number.
At first glance this appears to be the issue of the report but there were other more concerning problems highlighted.
Electors in 274 of 635 First Nation reserves had to drive to another town to cast ballots.
Kenora, Ontario didn’t have any election day polling stations in three First Nations communities.
In the riding of Mississauga-Streetsville, 1,589 special ballots from electors were found in a commercial mail room outside the control of a returning officer. Since those ballots weren’t received until after a Sept. 20 deadline, they weren’t counted.
Thankfully this wasn’t enough to swing the race either way but it raises questions of how this can happen.
If mail in voting is to become more widespread post-COVID the question has to be asked, how can it be ensured that ballots get to their destination on time?
And a better question, either mail-in or not, is how can someone know if their vote has been counted?
Presently this is not an issue but the fact 200,000 ballots were not counted, raises the question of what should be done if this becomes the norm and how a vote can be tracked from start to finish.
We know that the process in the US has been questioned extensively and we are incredibly lucky to be in a situation where the result was not in doubt in Canada that these 200,000 ballots could’ve become a problem.
And everything that can be done should be done to ensure there is never any doubt within our electoral system.
Supplementals:

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/sta_ge44&document=index&lang=e

Firing Line

Canada’s Conservative Leader Is Ousted

Once again, the international media paints a clearer picture of what is happening in Canada than the Canadian media. The New York Times did a fairly well researched article in which they describe the ousting of Erin O'Toole from the leadership of Canada's Conservative Party. NYT described this baffling move by the Conservative caucus as "providing a political lift to the minority government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, buffeted by pandemic fatigue and divided opinion over his stewardship of the country."
The vote is something of a political gift for Trudeau, who has been grappling with the invasion of the Omicron variant and intensifying frustration over pandemic restrictions. There are economic challenges, too, including inflation of nearly 5 percent, the highest in 30 years.
In a secret ballot, the Conservative caucus voted against Mr. O’Toole, 73-45, according to a statement from the caucus chair, Scott Reid. The vote was forced by a petition from caucus members concerned that Mr. O’Toole had taken the party too far away from its core conservative values on social issues. The vote against Mr. O’Toole appears to have been triggered by Conservative members angered by his support of a Liberal government bill banning conversion therapy earlier this year.
On Wednesday evening, the caucus selected Candice Bergen, the deputy leader and a former cabinet minister, as the party’s interim leader. Party rules do not allow Ms. Bergen, who is from Manitoba, to seek the post permanently at an upcoming leadership convention.
So now, the Conservative Party is looking for a new leader for the third time in five years. The ousting of O’Toole also suggests a widening of the rift between its more socially conservative wing, which is largely based in Western Canada, and its fiscally conservative, socially liberal branch that is centered in Ontario, the most populous province and Mr. O’Toole’s home.
O'Toole said on Twitter: "There are two roads open to the Conservative Party of Canada. One is the road of Randy Hillier and Derek Sloan. It is angry, negative, and extreme. It is a dead-end; one that would see the party of Confederation become the NDP of the right. The other road is to better reflect the Canada of 2022. To recognize that conservatism is organic not static and that a winning message is one of inclusion, optimism, ideas and hope."
O’Toole, who was picked as leader less than two years ago, came to the election campaign as something of an unknown quantity among Canadians. He was elected as Conservative leader by appealing to the party’s right wing with a platform that promised to “take back Canada.”
Once installed as leader, however, he quickly tacked towards the centre, and alienated many among the party’s more hardcore conservative branch with his attempt to broaden the party’s appeal. After he failed to win last fall’s vote, Mr. O’Toole was criticized by Conservatives on the right for being a 'fake conservative'.
While the Conservatives did score a symbolic victory in the last election, winning the greatest share of the popular vote, the concentration of Conservative support in places like Alberta meant that it didn’t translate into the largest number of seats. O’Toole also came under criticism after the Conservatives failed to do well in electorally important urban centers like the Toronto area and Metro Vancouver despite his shift to the center.
Duane Bratt, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary, says that O'Toole probably needed more than one election chance to win, something that the Conservatives only gave his predecessor Andrew Scheer one time as well: “There’s an obvious ‘you didn’t win the election, get out’ feeling in the Conservative movement that is probably not fair. He probably needed two tries.”
In retaliation for launching a petition calling for an early leadership review, O’Toole booted Sen. Denise Batters from the national caucus in November. She said Wednesday she was happy with what’s transpired, saying it provides a “clear direction” for federal Conservatives.
Asked if the party is once again grappling with whether it should move more towards the right or the centre, Conservative MP Michael Barrett said the party has to have more conversations, starting with who will lead in the short term: “I want to make sure that our party elects a leader who represents the views of Conservatives across Canada and gives us the best opportunity we have to replace a tired, corrupt, tax-and-spend Liberal government that that Canadians are growing very tired of,” he said.
O’Toole’s removal comes amid a trucker convoy rally in Ottawa protesting vaccine mandates and pandemic restrictions. While one of the main objectives of the rally was to oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, it is his main rival that has been toppled while the truckers are in town.
“What I find really surprising is the same Conservative MPs who are promoting the convoys against Mr. Trudeau, seem to have played a role in taking down Mr. O'Toole,” said NDP MP Charlie Angus on his way up to Parliament Hill.
As the dust settles, many Canadians across Canada are again left wondering what is going to happen to the party, and who will oppose Trudeau. We at Western Context are similarly wondering what will happen, as the party goes back to square one.
Supplementals:

Word of the Week

Oust - drive out or expel (someone) from a position or place.

Quote of the Week

"There are two roads open to the Conservative Party of Canada. One is the road of Randy Hillier and Derek Sloan. It is angry, negative, and extreme. It is a dead-end; one that would see the party of Confederation become the NDP of the right. The other road is to better reflect the Canada of 2022. To recognize that conservatism is organic not static and that a winning message is one of inclusion, optimism, ideas and hope." - Outgoing Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole on his vision for the Conservative Party of Canada.

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Show Data

Episode Title: The O’Toole Departure

Teaser: Alberta could return to balanced budgets very soon, BC’s milk container deposit impacts inflation, and Elections Canada says that 200,000 mail in ballots from 2021 were not counted. Also, Erin O’Toole is ousted as Conservative leader.

Recorded Date: February 4, 2022

Release Date: February 6, 2022

Duration: 53:22

Edit Notes: Internet cut out

Podcast Summary Notes

Duration: XX:XX