Here at Western Context our goal is to provide you with the context and information you need to put yourself on the right side of the news, and that includes polls. With 2019 being a huge year for elections both in Alberta and Canada as a whole, we will fill the gaps that the media misses when they report on polls.

On this page you will find a brief explainer of why polls can be wrong and our ranking of polls in terms of their perceived accuracy. Polls are a tool that look at a certain population at a specific point in time. Polls are also heavily reported on in the media today without many of the caveats of the poll broadcasted.

Polls can be wrong if:

  • the poll doesn’t accurately sample the population (i.e. more male than female, more old than young, or more of one region than another)
  • the sample size is too small (this creates a wide margin of error)
  • the poll is no longer valid (either the firm waited too long to release the report or population sentiment might be different to when the poll was taken).

Below you will find a table of recent polls pertinent to the Canada 2019 election. This table will be updated weekly or when a new poll is released. When updated the table will update ratings for each poll relative to the current date. Polls will start off as green or yellow depending on their characteristics and when they were released and will shift to red once the poll should be ignored.

Green polls have good methodology, sample size, and has been taken recent enough that it can still reflect public mood.

Yellow polls either have less reputable methodology (eg: rolling averages), or were green but time has passed and they are no longer as current as green polls.

Red polls have an invalid sample size, questionable origin, questionable methodology, or were published too late to be of any use. Alternatively, polls that were originally green and yellow can turn red after enough time has passed, and should no longer be considered current polls to draw information from, but are left up for posterity.

Date(s) Firm Sample Method Margin of Error LPC CPC NDP GRN Orig. Rating
Oct 16 Mainstreet 2,128 IVR 2.12 31.9 30.9 18.5 7.0
Oct 16 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 31.5 32.5 18.6 7
Oct 15 Mainstreet 2,070 IVR 2.15 30.9 30.6 18.3 7.7
Oct 15 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 31.9 32.5 18.8 9.4
Oct 12-15 Angus Reid 1,984 Online 2 29 33 19 8
Oct 14 Mainstreet 2,076 IVR 2.15 30.7 31.1 17.2 8.5
Oct 11-13 Ipsos 2,204 Hybrid 2.4 30 32 20 8
Oct 13 Mainstreet 2,510 IVR 2.11 30.7 32.1 16.6 8.3
Oct 13 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32.3 32.1 19.2 9.3
Oct 12 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32 32 20 9
Oct 11 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 33 32 18 9
Oct 8-10 Campaign 4,037 Online 1.54 29 31 19 10
Oct 8-10 DART 1,310 Online 3.1 28 33 20 7
Oct 8-10 Abacus 3,000 Online 1.9 32 32 18 6
Oct 10 Mainstreet 2,274 IVR 2 28.9 31.7 16.6 9.4
Oct 8-10 Angus Reid 3,031 Online 1.8 29 34 17 9
Oct 7-10 EKOS 1,947 Hybrid 2.2 30.5 31.7 13.1 12.8
Oct 8-10 Innovative 2,394 Online N/A 35 31 15 10
Oct 10 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.4 33.2 15.3 8.8
Oct 9 Mainstreet 2,274 IVR 2 28.9 31.7 16.6 9.4
Oct 9 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 36.9 33.2 14.1 8.1
Oct 9 Mainstreet 2,309 IVR 2 30.2 32.2 15.1 9.8
Oct 7-8 Leger 2,150 Online 2.11 31 31 18 7
Oct 7-8 Forum 1,013 IVR 3 28 35 13 12
Oct 8 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.6 34.8 13.4 9.1
Oct 8 Mainstreet 2,445 IVR 2 31.7 32 14.3 10.3
Oct 7 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34.6 34.8 13.2 10.1
Oct 7 Mainstreet 2,108 IVR 2.13 32.6 33.1 13.2 10.1
Oct 6 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34.3 33.4 15 9.6
Oct 4-7 Ipsos 1,502 Online 2.9 34 35 15 7
Oct 6 Mainstreet 2,108 IVR 2.13 33.1 33.3 13.3 9.7
Oct 6 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34.3 33.4 15 9.6
Oct 3-5 Abacus 1,556 Online 2 35 33 16 8
Oct 5 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 36.7 32.7 15 8
Oct 4 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 36.2 32.6 15.6 7.4
Sep 30 – Oct 2 Campaign 4,755 Online 2.8 32 34 13.8 11
Oct 3 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 36.3 34.3 14.9 9
Oct 3 Mainstreet 2,207 IVR 2.07 34.3 34.8 11/4 9.1
Oct 2 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32.9 35.2 14.9 9
Oct 2 Mainstreet 2,234 IVR 2.07 33.4 36.4 11.9 9
Sep 30 – Oct 1 Forum 1,853 IVR 3 34 31 12 12
Oct 1 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34.2 33.9 15.2 10.2
Oct 1 Mainstreet 2,259 IVR 2.06 33.5 36 11.6 10
Sep 27-30 Angus Reid 1,522 Online 3 30 37 14 8
Sep 27-30 Leger 1,558 Online 2.48 34 34 14 11
Sep 27-30 Ipsos 1,489 Online 2.9 34 37 15 7
Sep 30 Mainstreet 2,183 IVR 2.1 33.3 36.1 11.6 10
Sep 30 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32.2 34.5 14.3 11.1
Sep 29 Mainstreet 2,140 IVR 2.1 34.4 34.1 10.9 10.5
Sep 29 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32.7 34 13.2 12.6
Sep 29 EKOS 1,492 IVR 2.5 33.4 31.1 11.4 13.4
Sep 28 Mainstreet 2,270 IVR 2.1 34 33.7 11.7 10.1
Sep 28 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32.5 34.2 13 12.6
Sep 23-26 Abacus 1,975 Phone 2.3 35 33 15 10
Sep 27 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34.4 33.7 15 10.5
Sep 25 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.5 33.6 14.5 9.5
Sep 24 Mainstreet 2,389 IVR 2.1 35.2 35.5 10.8 9.3
Sep 20-24 Leger 2,153 Online 2.1 34 33 13 11
Sep 24 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.3 35.4 12.7 8.8
Sep 20-23 Ipsos 1,500 Online 2.9 32 36 15 11
Sep 23 Mainstreet 2,333 IVR 2 34.5 35.9 11.2 9.6
Sep 23 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.1 33.5 12.9 10.1
Sep 18-22 EKOS 1,272 IVR 2.8 32 35.3 10.9 10.3
Sep 20 DART 1,517 Online 2.9 30 37 15 8
Sep 22-23 Angus Reid 1,441 Online 2 30 35 15 11
Sep 22 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 33.1 34.3 12.8 10.6
Sep 22 Abacus 1,929 Online 2.3 32 34 15 10
Sep 21 Mainstreet 2,124 IVR 2.13 33.9 34.8 11.4 10.7
Sep 21 Forum 2,449 IVR 3 33 33 11 11
Sep 21 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32.9 35.5 14 9.5
Sep 20 Mainstreet 2,087 IVR 2.14 35.9 34.2 10.9 10.4
Sep 20 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 32 36.8 13.7 9
Sep 19 Angus Reid 2,087 Online 2 33 36 13 9
Sep 19 Mainstreet 2,087 IVR 2.1 36.8 34.2 10.1 9.8
Sep 19 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34.2 37.4 12.8 9.3
Sep 18 Mainstreet 1,935 IVR 2.2 37.2 34.4 9.8 10.1
Sep 18 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35 37.8 11.8 7.7
Sep 13-17 Leger 1,598 Online N/A 34 33 12 11
Sep 17 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.5 37.2 13.6 7
Sep 16 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34.9 35.9 15.4 6.5
Sep 15 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 34 34.4 16.4 7.8
Sep 14 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.2 32.3 16.6 9.6
Sep 13 Ipsos 2,562 Mixed 2.2 35 35 15 9
Sep 13 Nanos 1,200 Phone 2.8 35.4 32.8 15.7 9.5
Sep 11 DART 1,517 Online 2.9 32 35 15 8
Sep 11 Forum 1,001 IVR 3 32.4 36.3 8.6 11.6
Last updated October 17th 2019